It's true that if a great power wants to build a Mediterranean empire, control of Israel/Palestine is essential. With the Soviet Union's fall, the only great power interested in the region is the United States.Sherab Dorje wrote:I think your assessment is flawed. In terms of "cold geopolitics" Israels geographical position cuts off all direct overland contact between the African and the Arabic Islamic world. It is even shaped like a wedge! It also cuts off overland travel from Europe into Africa. Palestine was always a crucial geopolitical location. Why do you think all those wars were fought for control of the territory? Not because of its religious significance, I can assure you. That always was, and continues to be, the excuse. The smoke screen.M.G. wrote:...but in terms of cold geopolitics, their travails are not of huge global importance.
Why do you think the British were so hell bent on acquiring Palestine during the 1920's? Why did the Germans try to grab it during WWII? Crusaders? The 6 day war (an attempt by Egypt to re-establish contact with the Arabian peninsula)?
Israel's status within the region is, at present and for decades to come, stable and locked. Palestinian uprisings are not going to destroy Israel, and no Arab armies are plotting to march upon her. The Arab-Israel conflict has basically shrunk down from the truly dramatic events of the mid-20th Century to the new normal of periodic militarily inconclusive wars. De facto, several (most?) Arab governments are fine with the Jewish state's existence. The agonies of the Israel/Palestine conflict draw a lot of attention, but I'd say their actual political significance is waning.
The one political question left open in the intermediate future is whether the parties will acquiesce to the creation of some sort of Palestinian state or not. (And that seems unlikely for now.)