Global Warming / Climate Change: Caused by human activity?

Casual conversation between friends. Anything goes (almost).

Global Warming / Climate Change: Caused by human activity? If so, so what?

Yes, the planet is warming, human economic & industrial activity are the primary cause, and this is a problem.
45
82%
Yes, the planet is warming, human economic & industrial activity contribute, and this is not a problem.
1
2%
Yes, the planet is warming, human economic & industrial activity are negligible factors, and this is not a problem.
2
4%
No, the planet is not warming, and "global warming" or "climate change" are dangerous hoaxes intended to [fill in the blank]
2
4%
I do not know.
4
7%
I do not care.
1
2%
 
Total votes: 55

Malcolm
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Change: Caused by human activi

Post by Malcolm » Wed Jul 22, 2015 6:04 pm

"Collapse can be avoided and population can reach equilibrium if the per capita rate of depletion of nature is reduced to a sustainable level, and if resources are distributed in a reasonably equitable fashion."
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/ ... scientists

Malcolm
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Change: Caused by human activi

Post by Malcolm » Wed Jul 22, 2015 7:01 pm

Time to sell the beach house:
The study—written by James Hansen, NASA's former lead climate scientist, and 16 co-authors, many of whom are considered among the top in their fields—concludes that glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica will melt 10 times faster than previous consensus estimates, resulting in sea level rise of at least 10 feet in as little as 50 years. The study, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, brings new importance to a feedback loop in the ocean near Antarctica that results in cooler freshwater from melting glaciers forcing warmer, saltier water underneath the ice sheets, speeding up the melting rate. Hansen, who is known for being alarmist and also right, acknowledges that his study implies change far beyond previous consensus estimates. In a conference call with reporters, he said he hoped the new findings would be "substantially more persuasive than anything previously published." I certainly find them to be.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/ ... rning.html

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Kim O'Hara
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Change: Caused by human activi

Post by Kim O'Hara » Wed Jul 22, 2015 10:41 pm

Malcolm wrote:...
...Hansen, who is known for being alarmist and also right...
Neatly put. True, too.

:namaste:
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WeiHan
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Change: Caused by human activi

Post by WeiHan » Fri Jul 24, 2015 7:40 am

To be fair, you got to have balanced information.

Scientists have also found that arctic ice has grown by a third in 2013, even in 2014, it is still 25% more, fully reversing the loss in the past few years.

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-33594654

So as I said, my cutoff point is here, if they turn out to be wrong as more new data appear in the next decade or two, then I'll turn my opinion towards onside. On the other hand, the global warming crowds got to think what will be your cutoff point. How many years of contradicting data will you be willing to reconsider your position?

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BrianG
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Change: Caused by human activi

Post by BrianG » Fri Jul 24, 2015 8:47 am

WeiHan wrote:To be fair, you got to have balanced information.

Scientists have also found that arctic ice has grown by a third in 2013, even in 2014, it is still 25% more, fully reversing the loss in the past few years.

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-33594654

So as I said, my cutoff point is here, if they turn out to be wrong as more new data appear in the next decade or two, then I'll turn my opinion towards onside. On the other hand, the global warming crowds got to think what will be your cutoff point. How many years of contradicting data will you be willing to reconsider your position?
You are cherry picking data. The reversal doesn't come close to reversing the loss over the past 50 years.
Telepaths - I like to kill them

WeiHan
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Change: Caused by human activi

Post by WeiHan » Fri Jul 24, 2015 9:08 am

BrianG wrote:
WeiHan wrote:To be fair, you got to have balanced information.

Scientists have also found that arctic ice has grown by a third in 2013, even in 2014, it is still 25% more, fully reversing the loss in the past few years.

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-33594654

So as I said, my cutoff point is here, if they turn out to be wrong as more new data appear in the next decade or two, then I'll turn my opinion towards onside. On the other hand, the global warming crowds got to think what will be your cutoff point. How many years of contradicting data will you be willing to reconsider your position?
You are cherry picking data. The reversal doesn't come close to reversing the loss over the past 50 years.
My point isn't that one year of data is sufficient to proof that there is no global warming in the last 50 years so I am not guilty of cherry picking data. My point is that there is some evidence that we have reach the peak data in recent years and in the next decade or two, we will witness a cooling of climate contrary to what mainstream climate scientists predicted. Therefore, that will be my cutoff point to decide who is right and who is wrong.

theanarchist
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Change: Caused by human activi

Post by theanarchist » Fri Jul 24, 2015 9:57 am

Actually we are in an intermediate warmer period of an ice age. So I wonder if the human activities may not on the longer term prevent a new cold phase.

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BrianG
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Change: Caused by human activi

Post by BrianG » Fri Jul 24, 2015 10:04 am

WeiHan wrote: My point isn't that one year of data is sufficient to proof that there is no global warming in the last 50 years so I am not guilty of cherry picking data. My point is that there is some evidence that we have reach the peak data in recent years and in the next decade or two, we will witness a cooling of climate contrary to what mainstream climate scientists predicted. Therefore, that will be my cutoff point to decide who is right and who is wrong.
Sure, it's possible that warming will reverse, and that would be a great scenario, at least until we enter an ice age. However, global warming is just one environmental problem out of many. Even if it reversed, I'd still recommend wearing a gas mask in Beijing.

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catmoon
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Change: Caused by human activi

Post by catmoon » Fri Jul 24, 2015 12:09 pm

The thing I find most convincing about global warming is the steady strengthening of the evidence for it. Twenty years ago there were just a few papers noting some interesting long term (century) changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. The concensus just keeps getting stronger and stronger year after year. This is usually a very good sign that we are onto something.
Sergeant Schultz knew everything there was to know.

Malcolm
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Change: Caused by human activi

Post by Malcolm » Fri Jul 24, 2015 12:45 pm

WeiHan wrote:
My point isn't that one year of data is sufficient to proof that there is no global warming in the last 50 years so I am not guilty of cherry picking data.
Umm., no.
“These people are not making any claim that we’re going to have some big recovery [in sea ice],” says Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center (who was not involved with the paper), adding that decreasing trends in the sea ice mean we’re still eventually heading toward a seasonally ice-free Arctic ocean. “But it’s going to occur in fits and starts because the sea ice is highly variable — we’re going to go up some years, down in others.”

Serreze does have some criticism for the paper. This study shows that “sea ice thickness, like extent, is highly variable,” he says. “Now, we’ve already known that it’s highly variable … So it’s really not saying anything new there.” He also has some concerns about the basic methods the researchers used to compute changes in sea ice volume, arguing that they made some “suspect assumptions” about certain important factors that could affect their calculations, like the thickness of snow cover on the ice.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/ener ... o-be-okay/

Urgyen Dorje
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Change: Caused by human activi

Post by Urgyen Dorje » Fri Jul 24, 2015 2:01 pm

WeiHan...

Since you have a spectrum of technical objections to the present climate science, and have presented work to contradict it, I'm curious if you have spoken with climate scientists to share these concerns? Nearly every piece of peer reviewed climate science research is on the internet, and every paper has at least one designated contact person who acts as a "spokesperson" for that work. Contacting these people is very easy to do and free.

Just curious.

-UD

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Kim O'Hara
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Change: Caused by human activi

Post by Kim O'Hara » Sat Jul 25, 2015 12:15 am

Urgyen Dorje wrote:WeiHan...

Since you have a spectrum of technical objections to the present climate science, and have presented work to contradict it, I'm curious if you have spoken with climate scientists to share these concerns? Nearly every piece of peer reviewed climate science research is on the internet, and every paper has at least one designated contact person who acts as a "spokesperson" for that work. Contacting these people is very easy to do and free.

Just curious.

-UD
Or, if you don't want to get quite so involved but do want to chat to real climate scientists talking about their work amongst themselves and with interested non-scientists, visit RealClimate http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/ar ... july-2015/
The current discussion gets on to Arctic ice (not for the first time) around # 150.

:reading:
Kim

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Kim O'Hara
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Change: Caused by human activi

Post by Kim O'Hara » Sat Jul 25, 2015 3:02 am

This comes from our Greens party but is pretty much right on topic here ...
Having conversations is one of the most accessible and effective ways to change attitudes.

With global warming well and truly back on the political agenda (... unfortunately due in part to the Abbott Government's relentless attacks on wind and solar energy) now is a great opportunity to reengage with family and friends about global warming, it's impacts on our lives and economy and what we need to do about it.
... followed by a 'how to' guide.
http://greensmps.org.au/content/materia ... versations

:namaste:
Kim

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Kim O'Hara
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Change: Caused by human activi

Post by Kim O'Hara » Tue Jul 28, 2015 1:22 am

catmoon wrote:The thing I find most convincing about global warming is the steady strengthening of the evidence for it. Twenty years ago there were just a few papers noting some interesting long term (century) changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. The concensus just keeps getting stronger and stronger year after year. This is usually a very good sign that we are onto something.
I agree, of course, but the science does go back a little over twenty years. This article http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/0 ... hropocene/, for instance, mentions an older prediction that has been proven true by events (wish it hadn't!) and provides another reason to listen to new predictions from the same person.

:namaste:
Kim

joy&peace
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Re: Global Warming / Climate Change: Caused by human activi

Post by joy&peace » Tue Jul 28, 2015 4:44 pm

this fella: Image

So a few months ago I came across this article; I value it very much for a few reasons; it shifts focus from the symptons to the cause, it recognizes the inter-relatedness of a few issues, and it also appreciates the interconnectedness of our ecosystem.

http://www.worldpopulationbalance.org/c ... ch-ecology

I also was very glad to see the webpage in general, partly because of the soundness and presentation of its info. It was also very lovely to see this found elsewhere, or understood in various places.. My family and I had come to many of these same conclusions, especially: to share the message ought to be done with an emphasis that it is not too late to solve such issues. The sooner they are resolved, the less overall suffering will result. To prevent suffering in advance. . well, it is much wiser.

And, the website is on partly another question, but they are again, very inter-related.

I wrote some of this last night but my kitten Coyote, in a flurry of activity on the keypad, erased it, so I chose to wait. :namaste:

Or in an even simpler nutshell, "Learn instead of burn, hear what I say," - Jimi Hendrix

And the site brings into it another related issue, of over-population, simplest thing there is that an exponentially growing population is not indefinitely tenable.

Again the key would seem to express these facts along with the positive message of their solution, i.e., to work for peace from a platform of wholeness. This has resonated with me very much.

I almost forgot:

May all beings be happy,
May all beings be healthy,
May all beings be at peace.

Nama Om Bhaisajyaguru

Tayatha Om Bekandze
Bekandze Maha Bekandze Bekandze

Randze Samugate Svaha!
Om Gate Gate Paragate Parasamgate bodhi svaha

Malcolm
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The Point of No Return: Climate Change Nightmares Are Alread

Post by Malcolm » Thu Aug 06, 2015 4:05 pm

Evidence for the above scenario comes in large part from our best understanding of what happened 250 million years ago, during the "Great Dying," when more than 90 percent of all oceanic species perished after a pulse of carbon dioxide and methane from land-based sources began a period of profound climate change. The conditions that triggered "Great Dying" took hundreds of thousands of years to develop. But humans have been emitting carbon dioxide at a much quicker rate, so the current mass extinction only took 100 years or so to kick-start.

With all these stressors working against it, a hypoxic feedback loop could wind up destroying some of the oceans' most species-rich ecosystems within our lifetime. A recent study by Sarah Moffitt of the University of California-Davis said it could take the ocean thousands of years to recover. "Looking forward for my kid, people in the future are not going to have the same ocean that I have today," Moffitt said.


Read more: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/ne ... z3i314rN8i
Follow us: @rollingstone on Twitter | RollingStone on Facebook

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Kim O'Hara
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Re: The Point of No Return: Climate Change Nightmares Are Al

Post by Kim O'Hara » Fri Aug 07, 2015 12:56 am

Malcolm wrote:
Evidence for the above scenario comes in large part from our best understanding of what happened 250 million years ago, during the "Great Dying," when more than 90 percent of all oceanic species perished after a pulse of carbon dioxide and methane from land-based sources began a period of profound climate change. The conditions that triggered "Great Dying" took hundreds of thousands of years to develop. But humans have been emitting carbon dioxide at a much quicker rate, so the current mass extinction only took 100 years or so to kick-start.

With all these stressors working against it, a hypoxic feedback loop could wind up destroying some of the oceans' most species-rich ecosystems within our lifetime. A recent study by Sarah Moffitt of the University of California-Davis said it could take the ocean thousands of years to recover. "Looking forward for my kid, people in the future are not going to have the same ocean that I have today," Moffitt said.


Read more: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/ne ... z3i314rN8i
Follow us: @rollingstone on Twitter | RollingStone on Facebook
Yes, I saw that. Seriously scary stuff, but there's more: "The scariest part of climate change isn’t what we know, but what we don’t"
https://theconversation.com/the-scaries ... dont-45419

:namaste:
Kim

WeiHan
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Re: The Point of No Return: Climate Change Nightmares Are Al

Post by WeiHan » Sat Aug 08, 2015 8:33 am

Malcolm wrote:
Evidence for the above scenario comes in large part from our best understanding of what happened 250 million years ago, during the "Great Dying," when more than 90 percent of all oceanic species perished after a pulse of carbon dioxide and methane from land-based sources began a period of profound climate change. The conditions that triggered "Great Dying" took hundreds of thousands of years to develop. But humans have been emitting carbon dioxide at a much quicker rate, so the current mass extinction only took 100 years or so to kick-start.

With all these stressors working against it, a hypoxic feedback loop could wind up destroying some of the oceans' most species-rich ecosystems within our lifetime. A recent study by Sarah Moffitt of the University of California-Davis said it could take the ocean thousands of years to recover. "Looking forward for my kid, people in the future are not going to have the same ocean that I have today," Moffitt said.


Read more: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/ne ... z3i314rN8i
Follow us: @rollingstone on Twitter | RollingStone on Facebook
1. This is only one of the hypothesis. There is no consensus in the scientific community regarding the causes for the various great extinction events.

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BrianG
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Re: The Point of No Return: Climate Change Nightmares Are Al

Post by BrianG » Sat Aug 08, 2015 6:04 pm

WeiHan wrote:1. This is only one of the hypothesis. There is no consensus in the scientific community regarding the causes for the various great extinction events.
There are multiple factors contributing to the current mass extinction event. Did climate change play as big a role in the collapse of the marine ecosystem in the gulf of Thailand as over-fishing? Probably not. But it didn't help either.

What will cause the current human population bubble to pop?
Ecosystem collapse?
Mass energy shortages?
Rising sea levels?
Nuclear war?
Automated drone arms race?

Is it really necessary to wait for a scientific consensus for humans to quit doing stupid sh*t?
Telepaths - I like to kill them

Urgyen Dorje
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Re: The Point of No Return: Climate Change Nightmares Are Al

Post by Urgyen Dorje » Sat Aug 08, 2015 6:17 pm

As someone trained as a scientist and science educator, I've always felt it was stupid to address such global issues as climate change through science. That might sound shocking, but I think an entirely scientific dialog really derails and detracts from the larger and deeper issues, simply because science has collapsed into scientific materialism and most people in modern societies into consumer materialism. The debate comes down to materialist claims attempting to trump other materialist claims-- the problem being that comsumer materialism is never going to be trumped by scientific materialist claims simply because it's driven entirely be desire. It will rationalize its position until the guillotine comes down.

We can use any number of other faculties available to us-- aesthetic, spiritual, social, and philosophical ones-- to show that we're living like lunatics. Those answers are right before us and don't require us wading through the minutiae of complex interdisciplinary scientific studies.
BrianG wrote:Is it really necessary to wait for a scientific consensus for humans to quit doing stupid sh*t?

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