Climate change to cause global beer shortage, study says

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Wayfarer
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Re: Climate change to cause global beer shortage, study says

Post by Wayfarer » Tue Oct 16, 2018 9:20 pm

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Miroku
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Re: Climate change to cause global beer shortage, study says

Post by Miroku » Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:01 pm

I am still surprised that nothing is really being done.,. I am afraid we are done for. Instead of focusing on this and doing some proper change we are distracted by stupid stuff.
Child, if you are not hypocritical and out of control, that is conduct.
~ Padampa Sangye

You say such clever things to people, but you do not apply them to yourself.
The faults within you are the ones to be exposed.
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Tlalok
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Re: Climate change to cause global beer shortage, study says

Post by Tlalok » Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:44 pm

Miroku wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:01 pm
I am still surprised that nothing is really being done.,. I am afraid we are done for. Instead of focusing on this and doing some proper change we are distracted by stupid stuff.
Humans are too tenacious to be killed off entirely, but we're probably looking at death tolls into the eight figures over the next fifty years. What a time to be alive.

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The Cicada
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Re: Climate change to cause global beer shortage, study says

Post by The Cicada » Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:49 pm

Tlalok wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:44 pm
Miroku wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:01 pm
I am still surprised that nothing is really being done.,. I am afraid we are done for. Instead of focusing on this and doing some proper change we are distracted by stupid stuff.
Humans are too tenacious to be killed off entirely, but we're probably looking at death tolls into the eight figures over the next fifty years. What a time to be alive.
Most of us probably won't live to see the worst of it. :shrug:

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Re: Climate change to cause global beer shortage, study says

Post by Wayfarer » Tue Oct 16, 2018 11:15 pm

I have one grand-child one year of age, and another expected early next year.

It is a shameful indictment of current governments that they have not been able to respond to this. Here in Australia, it has caused major political conflict, with a number of Prime Ministers' careers brought to an end by those who refuse to face the problem. Even now there are climate dinosaurs who are insisting the whole issue is just a beat-up by green-left activism. They're unable to comprehend the scope of the problem, their tiny world-views can't accommodate it. They certainly won't live to see the worst of it, although even if they did, they would die denying it. 'There are none so blind as those who will not see'.

The best summary of the IPCC report and a forecast of what is likely to happen is in New Yorker magazine.
Only practice with no gaining idea ~ Suzuki Roshi

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Tlalok
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Re: Climate change to cause global beer shortage, study says

Post by Tlalok » Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:22 am

The Cicada wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:49 pm
Tlalok wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:44 pm
Miroku wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:01 pm
I am still surprised that nothing is really being done.,. I am afraid we are done for. Instead of focusing on this and doing some proper change we are distracted by stupid stuff.
Humans are too tenacious to be killed off entirely, but we're probably looking at death tolls into the eight figures over the next fifty years. What a time to be alive.
Most of us probably won't live to see the worst of it. :shrug:
The great thing about it is that there isn't a worst part of it, because its already here and will only get worse if our leader's continue to do nothing. "Success" in a climate change context is pretty bleak because we're already locked in for a century of blood and chaos that will almost certainly lead to a solid 20 - 50% decrease of the world's population. However, it can always get worse, and will until we radically change the way our civilization functions. Success is only losing our legs rather than the infection ending human civilization.

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Re: Climate change to cause global beer shortage, study says

Post by Supramundane » Wed Oct 17, 2018 5:43 am

the whole 'climate change', 'global warning' argument is a huge red herring.

instead of arguing about it we should re-frame the argument. rather than trying to prove or disprove it, we should simply state that we should stop treating the ocean like a trash can.

no one can argue about that.

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Vasana
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Re: Climate change to cause global beer shortage, study says

Post by Vasana » Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:59 am

The Cicada wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:49 pm
Tlalok wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:44 pm
Miroku wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:01 pm
I am still surprised that nothing is really being done.,. I am afraid we are done for. Instead of focusing on this and doing some proper change we are distracted by stupid stuff.
Humans are too tenacious to be killed off entirely, but we're probably looking at death tolls into the eight figures over the next fifty years. What a time to be alive.
Most of us probably won't live to see the worst of it. :shrug:
Not true. The effects of a 1.5 degree warmer planet include around a 5 fold increase in extreme weather events compared to today in some areas. Developing countries and tropical regions will suffer direct effects sooner, but the rest suffer later. Indirect effect will be felt much sooner and it's expected climate 'refugees' will surge with additional conflicts driven by food and water shortages. For perspective, we are already at about 1.2 degrees warmer already and the 1.5 threshold is expected around 2026-2031. Then there are tipping points anywhere between 1.5 and beyond that could steer us in to a mostly inhospitable earth.

Remaining below 1.5 relies heavily on technology that doesn't really exist at the scale it needs to nor is it guaranteed to work.

So no. We will live to see some horrors. I can't see us mitigating fast enough and It's too early to bet on negative emission technologies so I'm keen to see that all countries and communities are building their resilience for the challenges ahead.
'When alone, watch your mind. When with others, watch your speech'- Old Kadampa saying.

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Vasana
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Re: Climate change to cause global beer shortage, study says

Post by Vasana » Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:04 am

Supramundane wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 5:43 am
the whole 'climate change', 'global warning' argument is a huge red herring.

instead of arguing about it we should re-frame the argument. rather than trying to prove or disprove it, we should simply state that we should stop treating the ocean like a trash can.

no one can argue about that.
Its not a red herring but I agree the framing is problematic since it obscures all of the other equally difficult issues we face like pollution, ocean acidification, top soil erosion and so on. The Planetary boundaries and safe operating space framework is more complete.ww have already crossed 4 of 9 thresholds.

Image

Note that the climate threshold is now 1.5 so an updated image would have us much closer and in the orange.
'When alone, watch your mind. When with others, watch your speech'- Old Kadampa saying.

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Supramundane
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Re: Climate change to cause global beer shortage, study says

Post by Supramundane » Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:21 am

great diagram, V.

i think when the ocean dies, all life will die.

i wonder if there has ever been a case study on whether life on land could survive the loss of the ocean.

we don't appreciate the interplay between the two. we see ourselves as independent of the ocean, but the opposite is true.

i used to think Paul Watson of Sea Shepherds had very radical ideas but the older i get the more i wonder if he is the only sane one on the planet.

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Re: Climate change to cause global beer shortage, study says

Post by Wayfarer » Wed Oct 17, 2018 8:37 am

Increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is the Number One issue. It’s not a red herring or ‘green left’ plot, it’s a reality that is affecting everyone on the planet, right now. It’s the single biggest threat to the whole planet and it has to be dealt with, or it will deal with us.
Only practice with no gaining idea ~ Suzuki Roshi

Miroku
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Re: Climate change to cause global beer shortage, study says

Post by Miroku » Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:38 am

Guess it is time to develop strong bodhicitta and non-attachment (not that it wasn't the time to do that before).
Child, if you are not hypocritical and out of control, that is conduct.
~ Padampa Sangye

You say such clever things to people, but you do not apply them to yourself.
The faults within you are the ones to be exposed.
~ Padampa Sangye

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Re: Climate change to cause global beer shortage, study says

Post by kirtu » Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:03 pm

Tlalok wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:44 pm
Miroku wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:01 pm
I am still surprised that nothing is really being done.,. I am afraid we are done for. Instead of focusing on this and doing some proper change we are distracted by stupid stuff.
Humans are too tenacious to be killed off entirely,....
No. After we actually either disrupt or kill off vital links in the food chain and it can't recover (assuming that it can't [there is some evidence both ways]), then we are done for. The question is whether that means two generations or more and that depends. We have killed off substantial numbers of insects already, at least in some subtropical environments- far more than previously recognized. That means that other animal populations dependent upon those insects decline. So far some kind of cascading effect has not taken place (or has not been recognized) but insects and other animals are pollinators and we are losing them. Loose sufficient pollination and we loose many kinds of crops. To my knowledge we have not compiled network models that would permit us to calculate the effect on species loss on the food web - something that we really need to do now.

It is doubtful that a very small group of humans (1M or so) living in a mostly abiotic environment could synthesize organic compounds for food. Proteins and carbohydrates may been too complex to synthesize although I note that some carbohydrate synthesize is possible (as is protein synthesis) but this might not be adequate for a lifetime of consumption.

But small, isolated groups may be able to maintain their own local ecosystems. For example Iceland is essentially isolated now. They are heavily dependent upon fishing. They could establish an isolated sufficient agricultural base after the oceans become essentially devoid of fish.

Kirt
Kirt's Tibetan Translation Notes

"Even if you practice only for an hour a day with faith and inspiration, good qualities will steadily increase. Regular practice makes it easy to transform your mind. From seeing only relative truth, you will eventually reach a profound certainty in the meaning of absolute truth."
Kyabje Dilgo Khyentse Rinpoche.

"Only you can make your mind beautiful."
HH Chetsang Rinpoche

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Re: Climate change to cause global beer shortage, study says

Post by kirtu » Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:28 pm

The Cicada wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:49 pm
Most of us probably won't live to see the worst of it. :shrug:
With apologies to our friend, this is exactly how political conservatives tend to think.

I was told this exact thing in a conversation at the US Department of Agriculture in 1988. I responded that we would indeed see some effects in our lifetime but worse animal populations will experience visible effects and our grandchildren on will have to live with these in an increasingly hostile environment.

And indeed now we do see some effects of climate change in the rear window. My hometown of Frankfurt am Main has statistically higher 90+ degree Fahrenheit days and in my other home, Oahu, Hawaii, places where we used to plant ourselves on Waikiki Beach are now underwater due to tides from sea rise (and this has only been an inch or so). I expect that in the mountains of Oahu there have been other as yet unreported changes to some animal populations particularly wrt insects. Half or more of the coral reefs worldwide are dead. Human impacts on waterways, both in the middle of oceans and close to land are undeniable. Excess carbon uptake is acidifying the oceans and the heat uptake is causing sea life populations to migrate. On land in North America virtually all plant and animal species are migrating northward. And glaciers worldwide are melting substantially. Some heat sensitive mammals may become extinct shortly and the one I know about is actually migrating up mountainsides (the pika).

Kirt
Kirt's Tibetan Translation Notes

"Even if you practice only for an hour a day with faith and inspiration, good qualities will steadily increase. Regular practice makes it easy to transform your mind. From seeing only relative truth, you will eventually reach a profound certainty in the meaning of absolute truth."
Kyabje Dilgo Khyentse Rinpoche.

"Only you can make your mind beautiful."
HH Chetsang Rinpoche

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kirtu
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Re: Climate change to cause global beer shortage, study says

Post by kirtu » Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:47 pm

kirtu wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:03 pm
To my knowledge we have not compiled network models that would permit us to calculate the effect on species loss on the food web - something that we really need to do now.
Here is a computational ecology paper from 2005 talking about exactly this problem: Computational Ecology: From the Complex
to the Simple and Back


Kirt
Kirt's Tibetan Translation Notes

"Even if you practice only for an hour a day with faith and inspiration, good qualities will steadily increase. Regular practice makes it easy to transform your mind. From seeing only relative truth, you will eventually reach a profound certainty in the meaning of absolute truth."
Kyabje Dilgo Khyentse Rinpoche.

"Only you can make your mind beautiful."
HH Chetsang Rinpoche

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Kim O'Hara
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Re: Climate change to cause global beer shortage, study says

Post by Kim O'Hara » Thu Oct 18, 2018 12:17 am

These issues are a primary focus over on DWE - https://dharmawheel.org/viewforum.php?f=9

Come on over and join the conversation if you like, or keep it going here, or both.

:namaste:
Kim

amanitamusc
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Re: Climate change to cause global beer shortage, study says

Post by amanitamusc » Thu Oct 18, 2018 12:24 am

I'm sure Monsanto will have an answer for the barley problem. :twisted:

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Tlalok
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Re: Climate change to cause global beer shortage, study says

Post by Tlalok » Thu Oct 18, 2018 2:39 pm

kirtu wrote:
Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:03 pm
Tlalok wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:44 pm
Miroku wrote:
Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:01 pm
I am still surprised that nothing is really being done.,. I am afraid we are done for. Instead of focusing on this and doing some proper change we are distracted by stupid stuff.
Humans are too tenacious to be killed off entirely,....
No. After we actually either disrupt or kill off vital links in the food chain and it can't recover (assuming that it can't [there is some evidence both ways]), then we are done for. The question is whether that means two generations or more and that depends. We have killed off substantial numbers of insects already, at least in some subtropical environments- far more than previously recognized. That means that other animal populations dependent upon those insects decline. So far some kind of cascading effect has not taken place (or has not been recognized) but insects and other animals are pollinators and we are losing them. Loose sufficient pollination and we loose many kinds of crops. To my knowledge we have not compiled network models that would permit us to calculate the effect on species loss on the food web - something that we really need to do now.

It is doubtful that a very small group of humans (1M or so) living in a mostly abiotic environment could synthesize organic compounds for food. Proteins and carbohydrates may been too complex to synthesize although I note that some carbohydrate synthesize is possible (as is protein synthesis) but this might not be adequate for a lifetime of consumption.

But small, isolated groups may be able to maintain their own local ecosystems. For example Iceland is essentially isolated now. They are heavily dependent upon fishing. They could establish an isolated sufficient agricultural base after the oceans become essentially devoid of fish.

Kirt
I think we're talking about more or less the same thing. Humans won't be killed off entirely, but we're going to be a barely recognizable fragment of the civilization we are used to today, at least over most of the world's surface. From there it may be a long slow slide to extinction, but to fully kill us all off immediately would require a lot more energy than we have available right now.

Baring some silly space travel fantasies, if we're actually able to turn Earth into Venus (and we may very well be), we're done of course.

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