What are you doing about the coronavirus?

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Johnny Dangerous
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Johnny Dangerous » Sun Mar 08, 2020 5:45 am

Pretty weird in Washington these days. There are cases like 30 miles from me, and I'm sure it's already in town anyway. So many people will get it and never be tested.

Streets are emptier - mostly at night for some reason, but people are still going about their daily business. I went to the gym today and it was as crowded as normal, just -very- sanitary compared to normal. It's funny the decrease in people outside at night makes it feel like it did 10 or 15 years ago.

Lots of panic buying, people are freaked and on edge, but I've seen some kindness too. Some schools have gone to all online classes, major events cancelled.

I'm doing prison Dharma work tomorrow, no cases there so far, we are going now because once there are cases at the prison, undoubtedly there will be no access for a while.
"...if you think about how many hours, months and years of your life you've spent looking at things, being fascinated by things that have now passed away, then how wonderful to spend even five minutes looking into the nature of your own mind."

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Nicholas Weeks
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Nicholas Weeks » Sun Mar 08, 2020 6:15 am

It is contagious, but the regular flu kills tens of thousands and COVID 19 is a feeble version.

Only those over 70 or with existing serious medical conditions are at risk for getting it.

The real danger is this ridiculous panic, as if it were the Black Death.
May all seek, find or follow the Path of Buddhas.

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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Johnny Dangerous » Sun Mar 08, 2020 6:19 am

Nicholas Weeks wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 6:15 am
It is contagious, but the regular flu kills tens of thousands and COVID 19 is a feeble version.
It seems objectively worse than seasonal the flu in a number of ways, it's new, and seems to cause pneumonia like symptoms more often among them.
Only those over 70 or with existing serious medical conditions are at risk for getting it.
What do you mean? Everyone is at risk of getting it, over 60 and underlying medical conditions supposedly doubles the risk of serious illness/death. My mother and mother in law are immune suppressed. It could quite possibly kill them. All you have to do is see how it is killing people in nursing homes here to see why it is a big deal to contain it.
The real danger is this ridiculous panic, as if it were the Black Death.
Panic is a danger, but so is pretending it is nothing.
"...if you think about how many hours, months and years of your life you've spent looking at things, being fascinated by things that have now passed away, then how wonderful to spend even five minutes looking into the nature of your own mind."

-James Low

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rory
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by rory » Sun Mar 08, 2020 6:50 am

Johnny Dangerous wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 6:19 am
Nicholas Weeks wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 6:15 am
It is contagious, but the regular flu kills tens of thousands and COVID 19 is a feeble version.
It seems objectively worse than seasonal the flu in a number of ways, it's new, and seems to cause pneumonia like symptoms more often among them.
Only those over 70 or with existing serious medical conditions are at risk for getting it.
What do you mean? Everyone is at risk of getting it, over 60 and underlying medical conditions supposedly doubles the risk of serious illness/death. My mother and mother in law are immune suppressed. It could quite possibly kill them. All you have to do is see how it is killing people in nursing homes here to see why it is a big deal to contain it.
The real danger is this ridiculous panic, as if it were the Black Death.
Panic is a danger, but so is pretending it is nothing.
How many times do I have to say this. Unlike the flu, the spread of COVID-19 is exponential. 10% of those afflicted in Wuhan needed to go to the ICU.
We don't have enough beds.
Everyone here needs to practice
1.social distancing,
2.rigorous hand-washing,
3. get a mask - any mask (the big deal about the mask is to prevent you from touching your face). COVID-19 affects the lungs that means droplets have to enter your mouth or nose via someone on top of you breathing/sneezing etc or you touching a surface and touching your face. The virus lives on surfaces for days.

Hong Kong stopped the spread because citizens took it upon themselves to do the above. For goodness' sake, act like Bodhisattvas and THINK OF OTHERS!
gassho
Rory
Namu Kanzeon Bosatsu
Chih-I:
The Tai-ching states "the women in the realms of Mara, Sakra and Brahma all neither abandoned ( their old) bodies nor received (new) bodies. They all received buddhahood with their current bodies (genshin)" Thus these verses state that the dharma nature is like a great ocean. No right or wrong is preached (within it) Ordinary people and sages are equal, without superiority or inferiority
Paul, Groner "The Lotus Sutra in Japanese Culture"eds. Tanabe p. 58
https://www.tendai-usa.org/

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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Johnny Dangerous » Sun Mar 08, 2020 7:16 am

rory wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 6:50 am
Johnny Dangerous wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 6:19 am
Nicholas Weeks wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 6:15 am
It is contagious, but the regular flu kills tens of thousands and COVID 19 is a feeble version.
It seems objectively worse than seasonal the flu in a number of ways, it's new, and seems to cause pneumonia like symptoms more often among them.
Only those over 70 or with existing serious medical conditions are at risk for getting it.
What do you mean? Everyone is at risk of getting it, over 60 and underlying medical conditions supposedly doubles the risk of serious illness/death. My mother and mother in law are immune suppressed. It could quite possibly kill them. All you have to do is see how it is killing people in nursing homes here to see why it is a big deal to contain it.
The real danger is this ridiculous panic, as if it were the Black Death.
Panic is a danger, but so is pretending it is nothing.
How many times do I have to say this. Unlike the flu, the spread of COVID-19 is exponential. 10% of those afflicted in Wuhan needed to go to the ICU.
We don't have enough beds.
Everyone here needs to practice
1.social distancing,
2.rigorous hand-washing,
3. get a mask - any mask (the big deal about the mask is to prevent you from touching your face). COVID-19 affects the lungs that means droplets have to enter your mouth or nose via someone on top of you breathing/sneezing etc or you touching a surface and touching your face. The virus lives on surfaces for days.

Hong Kong stopped the spread because citizens took it upon themselves to do the above. For goodness' sake, act like Bodhisattvas and THINK OF OTHERS!
gassho
Rory
Who are you talking to here, me or Nicholas? FYI I'm in the US epicenter of the outbreak, trust me, I have all the info on what I'm supposed to be doing.
"...if you think about how many hours, months and years of your life you've spent looking at things, being fascinated by things that have now passed away, then how wonderful to spend even five minutes looking into the nature of your own mind."

-James Low

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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by smcj » Sun Mar 08, 2020 7:25 am

It is contagious, but the regular flu kills tens of thousands and COVID 19 is a feeble version.
COVID 19 is a feeble version of the flu? Where are you getting your information?
1.The problem isn’t ‘ignorance’. The problem is the mind you have right now. (H.H. Karmapa XVII @NYC 2/4/18)
2. I support Mingyur R and HHDL in their positions against lama abuse.
3. Student: Lama, I thought I might die but then I realized that the 3 Jewels would protect me.
Lama: Even If you had died the 3 Jewels would still have protected you. (DW post by Fortyeightvows)

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rory
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by rory » Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:22 am

How many times do I have to say this. Unlike the flu, the spread of COVID-19 is exponential. 10% of those afflicted in Wuhan needed to go to the ICU.
We don't have enough beds.
Everyone here needs to practice
1.social distancing,
2.rigorous hand-washing,
3. get a mask - any mask (the big deal about the mask is to prevent you from touching your face). COVID-19 affects the lungs that means droplets have to enter your mouth or nose via someone on top of you breathing/sneezing etc or you touching a surface and touching your face. The virus lives on surfaces for days.

Hong Kong stopped the spread because citizens took it upon themselves to do the above. For goodness' sake, act like Bodhisattvas and THINK OF OTHERS!
gassho
Rory
Who are you talking to here, me or Nicholas? FYI I'm in the US epicenter of the outbreak, trust me, I have all the info on what I'm supposed to be doing.
Both. Social Distancing: Johnny, you shouldn't be going to the gym: a packed sweaty indoor place. Nor the prison:another packed contained space. Do a remote dharma service.
For exercise: take a walk/run in your empty town...play basketball on an empty court. Do an alone activity far from others.

Nicholas, if you're young, get a cold or even have some kind of low grade respiratory infection and then get COVID-19. You are in big danger...

We all need to step up to stop the spread of COVID-19
gassho
Rory
Namu Kanzeon Bosatsu
Chih-I:
The Tai-ching states "the women in the realms of Mara, Sakra and Brahma all neither abandoned ( their old) bodies nor received (new) bodies. They all received buddhahood with their current bodies (genshin)" Thus these verses state that the dharma nature is like a great ocean. No right or wrong is preached (within it) Ordinary people and sages are equal, without superiority or inferiority
Paul, Groner "The Lotus Sutra in Japanese Culture"eds. Tanabe p. 58
https://www.tendai-usa.org/

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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Johnny Dangerous » Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:31 am

rory wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 8:22 am
How many times do I have to say this. Unlike the flu, the spread of COVID-19 is exponential. 10% of those afflicted in Wuhan needed to go to the ICU.
We don't have enough beds.
Everyone here needs to practice
1.social distancing,
2.rigorous hand-washing,
3. get a mask - any mask (the big deal about the mask is to prevent you from touching your face). COVID-19 affects the lungs that means droplets have to enter your mouth or nose via someone on top of you breathing/sneezing etc or you touching a surface and touching your face. The virus lives on surfaces for days.

Hong Kong stopped the spread because citizens took it upon themselves to do the above. For goodness' sake, act like Bodhisattvas and THINK OF OTHERS!
gassho
Rory
Who are you talking to here, me or Nicholas? FYI I'm in the US epicenter of the outbreak, trust me, I have all the info on what I'm supposed to be doing.
Both. Social Distancing: Johnny, you shouldn't be going to the gym: a packed sweaty indoor place. Nor the prison:another packed contained space. Do a remote dharma service.
For exercise: take a walk/run in your empty town...play basketball on an empty court. Do an alone activity far from others.

Nicholas, if you're young, get a cold or even have some kind of low grade respiratory infection and then get COVID-19. You are in big danger...

We all need to step up to stop the spread of COVID-19
gassho
Rory
Lol, the prison doesn't allow remote services, just getting basic religious services is a chore for them, I can tell you've not spent much time around prisons.

No one here (you know, the actual experts, unlike you) is recommending people shut down their daily lives, nor are they recommending strict social distancing for everyone as you are yet because that is simply unrealistic, as people have jobs, responsibilities, etc. They are recommending strict hand washing, avoiding large gatherings, self-quarantine when ill etc. I actually read specifically about going to the gym and most authorities are saying that there is no increased risk than with anywhere else, because spread by surfaces is thought less likely than spread by droplets, and there is no evidence of spread via sweat.

Mind your own business and stop trying to tell me how to live my life when I'm right near the center of this thing, I'm around all kinds of people that know more about it than you, and didn't ask you for a lecture. Nothing more infuriating in an already stressful situations like this than being lectured at remotely by a self appointed expert, so you're going on ignore for now.
"...if you think about how many hours, months and years of your life you've spent looking at things, being fascinated by things that have now passed away, then how wonderful to spend even five minutes looking into the nature of your own mind."

-James Low

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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by muni » Sun Mar 08, 2020 9:08 am

We of course, have a Butler. He stands by the loo door with lengths of scented silk in one hand and a tray of colognes on the other...
This brought a laughter. Laughter decreases stress is said. Anyway, stress nobody needs for immune sytem.

China where it started has less and less new infections each day...

Good food, good higiene, good rest, meditate for all. Prayer for the sick. Avoid big groups of people ( perhaps no retreat) . Take a walk in open fresh air if possible.
Not sure about echinacea.

Then I do not visit elderly or sick fellows, I take the phone. ( Since we cannot be sure we do not have the virus without clear symptomes.) We can think we have just a cold.

There are now everywhere examinations to find a medicine, to cut the grow of the virus by the very sick ones. Thanks a lot for all generosity to support these, like the generosity by Bill Gates!!!

Springtime is coming in many parts of this world...impermanence.
Phenomena adorn emptiness, but never corrupt it.

Only if you have developed the love and compassion of relative bodhichitta can absolute bodhichitta – the very essence of the Great Perfection and the Great Seal – ever take birth in your being. Dilgo Khyentse Rinpoche.

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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Nemo » Sun Mar 08, 2020 9:56 am

This is the exponential growth phase. There isn't much to do now. The pin on the grenade is pulled. In May when hospital capacity is exceeded the "it's just a flu" bros will finally shut up. They will then ask why the government didn't do more to prepare.

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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by smcj » Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:18 pm

I figure 2-6 weeks before it gets to my area. The reason I’m concerned is that my Sangha are largely older, diabetic, immune compromised, or are otherwise not well. It could threaten people’s lives here.
1.The problem isn’t ‘ignorance’. The problem is the mind you have right now. (H.H. Karmapa XVII @NYC 2/4/18)
2. I support Mingyur R and HHDL in their positions against lama abuse.
3. Student: Lama, I thought I might die but then I realized that the 3 Jewels would protect me.
Lama: Even If you had died the 3 Jewels would still have protected you. (DW post by Fortyeightvows)

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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Nemo » Sun Mar 08, 2020 1:48 pm

smcj wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:18 pm
I figure 2-6 weeks before it gets to my area. The reason I’m concerned is that my Sangha are largely older, diabetic, immune compromised, or are otherwise not well. It could threaten people’s lives here.
It's safe to assume it's already there. Exponential growth looks like nothing the first few cycles. If you have health issues it's time to go into isolation. If young healthy people get it hopefully they develop immunity properly. There have been anecdotal cases of people getting it twice. If that ratio is too high and it continues to mutate the worst case scenario is no herd immunity. Then we have to hope for an antiviral which could take years. It's not looking good.

China really dropped the ball in December. My experiences here with infection control makes me believe we would have done as badly or worse. We are utterly unprepared for this entirely predictable event. When I was in the military the US and Canada were decommissioning all our biowar facilites. We redeployed all those resources into cyber war crap. Man do we look stupid now. Actually it looked really stupid then. That equipment would have been so useful. Those cruise ships could have been turned into fully staffed hospitals in days or all the passengers shipped in planes with built in isolation chambers to existing pandemic treatment facilities. You treat the infected in separate hospitals for safety obviously. This is what happens when oligarchs loot for 40 years.

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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by PeterC » Sun Mar 08, 2020 2:11 pm

Nemo wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 1:48 pm
smcj wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:18 pm
I figure 2-6 weeks before it gets to my area. The reason I’m concerned is that my Sangha are largely older, diabetic, immune compromised, or are otherwise not well. It could threaten people’s lives here.
It's safe to assume it's already there. Exponential growth looks like nothing the first few cycles. If you have health issues it's time to go into isolation. If young healthy people get it hopefully they develop immunity properly. There have been anecdotal cases of people getting it twice. If that ratio is too high and it continues to mutate the worst case scenario is no herd immunity. Then we have to hope for an antiviral which could take years. It's not looking good.

China really dropped the ball in December. My experiences here with infection control makes me believe we would have done as badly or worse. We are utterly unprepared for this entirely predictable event. When I was in the military the US and Canada were decommissioning all our biowar facilites. We redeployed all those resources into cyber war crap. Man do we look stupid now. Actually it looked really stupid then. That equipment would have been so useful. Those cruise ships could have been turned into fully staffed hospitals in days or all the passengers shipped in planes with built in isolation chambers to existing pandemic treatment facilities. You treat the infected in separate hospitals for safety obviously. This is what happens when oligarchs loot for 40 years.
Nemo, perhaps take the fearmongering down a notch?

First, I’m not sure on what basis you’re saying China “dropped the ball”. Doing a national lockdown on a scale unprecedented in the history of humanity clearly slowed down transmission to other countries. They developed a test in a matter of weeks and shared that and the sequencing of the virus with the world. All the basic science on this was done in China at a remarkable speed and shared freely. The WHO has had nothing but praise for their response. Some countries took advantage of the head start and prepared testing, tracking, isolation protocols, public information, etc. Others did not, and more fool them. But you get the government you vote for.

Second, this is not the seven plagues of Egypt. The infection rate in the population of Wuhan was about 0.6%. The mortality rate, unadjusted for age, is around 2% if you don’t get medical treatment and about 0.2% if you do. So let’s assume that the whole world is exposed as intensively as Wuhan was - which is an absurd assumption, but helps to make the point. That would give you fewer than 100k deaths if everyone got Singapore-standard treatment, and a bit under 1m deaths if they got Iran-standard treatment. But of course the whole world won’t get exposed at that level. It won’t even reach a quarter of that. The seasonal flu kills about half a million people a year and we don’t seem to care very much about that. If this virus had not been identified and highlighted, we might even have just written off 2020 as an unusually bad flu season and never realized what was going on. Hospitals don’t usually autopsy people who die from the flu and sequence the genome of the virus that killed them. Remember the swine flu? The only reason we even knew it existed was because two patients happened to walk into a university-linked hospital that was also a major infectious diseases center and the doctor treating them decided to have a closer look at the virus because he had the kit to hand and has some spare time.

Which brings me to the third point. The flu is a great analogy. Similar method of transmission (though airborne transmission seems to be very limited for ncovid-19). Similar methods of prevention. Similar mechanism for deaths - pneumonia for the most part - and similar protocols for treating serious cases. Similar age profile for mortality rates. Sure, the flu is not a coronavirus. But it’s actually a pretty good analogy to help understand it.

The main risk is not the virus itself, it’s how people react to it. That’s critically important. It’s particularly important in the US, which has failed to prepare in any meaningful way, and where the healthcare system is a disaster and people avoid seeking treatment due to the cost.

There’s enough solid advice on this thread and way too much hysteria, so I’m going to exit the conversation at this point. Much of what you say I agree with, but it is not helpful to encourage people to panic.

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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Nemo » Sun Mar 08, 2020 2:42 pm

PeterC wrote:
Sun Feb 16, 2020 5:25 pm
Nemo wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 4:14 pm
If you guys are right this will be over in March. I hope you are.
All available information suggests that it will be.

Data suggests that without containment measures R0>2, but this is spread strictly by contact. Pretty much every infection to date outside Hubei province can be explained by physical contact with someone who came from there, not from airborne transmission. Infected mortality is about 2% in Hubei province but about 0.2% anywhere outside, and the difference is explained by speed of diagnosis and treatment. Deaths outside of China are very, very few, and most currently hospitalized cases are not acute: actually most of the deaths outside China are actually people from Wuhan who left the city before the quarantine, and who resisted seeking treatment for a long time - for instance, the 70-year-old who just died in France, who fled Wuhan in mid-January. So if treated properly it's really not much more dangerous than the seasonal flu. Now of the deaths, around 80% are over the age of 70. Almost every mortality under retirement age was of people in bad health before becoming infected.
I guess I worked on the front line too long. Watching people die of infectious disease SUCKS. Being a health care worker and not having life saving supplies is profoundly painful. If you don't take that seriously what do you think is serious? Is the problem you think people shouldn't know whats going on so they don't freak out making it worse? What are acceptable losses for you? They seem really high. I get that being human doesn't help in these situations. I knew the guys who used to handle Ebola in the 80s. Old containment was deploying the local army and gas trucks to villages. They never failed in containment. The new sensitive ways are nowhere near as effective. They had nightmares till they died of course. Maybe I have too much faith in people making informed decisions though everything I see in the world refutes that idealistic notion. You sound like you work for the WHO, lol.

As for China blowing it they arrested the whistleblower Dr who told the world about it and put him in unprotected quarantine till he died. They arrested 8 others that we know of for spreading hoaxes about what we now call COVID 19. They also destroyed the first samples of the virus on Jan 2. China tried to cover it up for weeks. Long enough for it to escape containment. Not that we would have done better. Are you behind the Golden Shield Project(Great Firewall).

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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Queequeg » Sun Mar 08, 2020 3:27 pm

Nemo wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 1:48 pm
This is what happens when oligarchs loot for 40 years.
Yep.
Those who, even with distracted minds,
Entered a stupa compound
And chanted but once, “Namo Buddhaya!”
Have certainly attained the path of the buddhas.

-Lotus Sutra, Expedient Means Chapter

There are beings with little dust in their eyes who are falling away because they do not hear the Dhamma. There will be those who will understand the Dhamma.
-Ayacana Sutta

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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by justsit » Sun Mar 08, 2020 3:38 pm

Nemo wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 2:42 pm
...As for China blowing it they arrested the whistleblower Dr who told the world about it and put him in unprotected quarantine till he died. They arrested 8 others that we know of for spreading hoaxes about what we now call COVID 19. They also destroyed the first samples of the virus on Jan 2.
Just curious - where did you get this information? As an RN I'm interested in original sources.

Also, who is "we" in your phrase "that we know of"?

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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Nicholas Weeks » Sun Mar 08, 2020 4:59 pm

Have not read every single word at CDC site, but they do know better than the fearmongers:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
May all seek, find or follow the Path of Buddhas.

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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Norwegian » Sun Mar 08, 2020 5:14 pm

Nicholas Weeks wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 4:59 pm
Have not read every single word at CDC site, but they do know better than the fearmongers:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html
Who are the "fearmongers" you're talking about, and what is it that they're saying? Because your other post above this one is really not accurate at all.

To mention one country, the US, there, the response is lackluster and incredibly poor (thank your president for that). This means that if the virus is not under control, many people will die. This does not mean only very old people, but also anybody with compromised immune systems as a consequence of many different illnesses.

The problem with COVID-19 is that there is no vaccine. And the mortality rate of COVID-19 is higher than the common flu. With the common flu, you have a number of strains on the market so to speak, which means every year you can get a number of nice flu vaccinations, which can protect you against the strains which you were vaccinated for. And that is very nice. This option however, does not exist for COVID-19.

The virus spreads very quickly, and so far almost 3700 people have died (over 107,000 people infected). Sure, more people die every year from this or that other disease, but this is 3600 people, and more can and will die from this.

So far there are two strains of the SARS-CoV2 virus, one mild, and one aggressive. If you have certain illnesses or important factors of consideration in this context (AIDS, chemotherapy, etc.), you can get very ill, even die, and you don't have to be 70+ for that to happen.

Imagine what will happen if SARS-COV2 continues to get worse and worse (i.e., more aggressive), and it spreads more and more?

Personally, I do not fear COVID-19, but I don't want to get sick from it just like I don't want a cold or the flu. However, the real problem is that if I get sick, I am likely to infect others, and then it just keeps on spreading and spreading. And I'd hate to have contributed to someone's death. Really.

So we don't have vaccines. What we can do however, is take many precautions, which we should take. And it is very important that people are informed about these things. Why should diseases begin to approach the the levels of the plague or the Spanish Flu before it's taken seriously?

Since you claimed that COVID-19 is a "feeble version" of the common flu, here's a death rate comparison for you:

Image

Perhaps you can see why this is a problem when there is no vaccine...
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The Guru is the Sangha too,
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Dan74 » Sun Mar 08, 2020 5:28 pm

PeterC wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 2:11 pm
Nemo wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 1:48 pm
smcj wrote:
Sun Mar 08, 2020 12:18 pm
I figure 2-6 weeks before it gets to my area. The reason I’m concerned is that my Sangha are largely older, diabetic, immune compromised, or are otherwise not well. It could threaten people’s lives here.
It's safe to assume it's already there. Exponential growth looks like nothing the first few cycles. If you have health issues it's time to go into isolation. If young healthy people get it hopefully they develop immunity properly. There have been anecdotal cases of people getting it twice. If that ratio is too high and it continues to mutate the worst case scenario is no herd immunity. Then we have to hope for an antiviral which could take years. It's not looking good.

China really dropped the ball in December. My experiences here with infection control makes me believe we would have done as badly or worse. We are utterly unprepared for this entirely predictable event. When I was in the military the US and Canada were decommissioning all our biowar facilites. We redeployed all those resources into cyber war crap. Man do we look stupid now. Actually it looked really stupid then. That equipment would have been so useful. Those cruise ships could have been turned into fully staffed hospitals in days or all the passengers shipped in planes with built in isolation chambers to existing pandemic treatment facilities. You treat the infected in separate hospitals for safety obviously. This is what happens when oligarchs loot for 40 years.
Nemo, perhaps take the fearmongering down a notch?

First, I’m not sure on what basis you’re saying China “dropped the ball”. Doing a national lockdown on a scale unprecedented in the history of humanity clearly slowed down transmission to other countries. They developed a test in a matter of weeks and shared that and the sequencing of the virus with the world. All the basic science on this was done in China at a remarkable speed and shared freely. The WHO has had nothing but praise for their response. Some countries took advantage of the head start and prepared testing, tracking, isolation protocols, public information, etc. Others did not, and more fool them. But you get the government you vote for.

Second, this is not the seven plagues of Egypt. The infection rate in the population of Wuhan was about 0.6%. The mortality rate, unadjusted for age, is around 2% if you don’t get medical treatment and about 0.2% if you do. So let’s assume that the whole world is exposed as intensively as Wuhan was - which is an absurd assumption, but helps to make the point. That would give you fewer than 100k deaths if everyone got Singapore-standard treatment, and a bit under 1m deaths if they got Iran-standard treatment. But of course the whole world won’t get exposed at that level. It won’t even reach a quarter of that. The seasonal flu kills about half a million people a year and we don’t seem to care very much about that. If this virus had not been identified and highlighted, we might even have just written off 2020 as an unusually bad flu season and never realized what was going on. Hospitals don’t usually autopsy people who die from the flu and sequence the genome of the virus that killed them. Remember the swine flu? The only reason we even knew it existed was because two patients happened to walk into a university-linked hospital that was also a major infectious diseases center and the doctor treating them decided to have a closer look at the virus because he had the kit to hand and has some spare time.

Which brings me to the third point. The flu is a great analogy. Similar method of transmission (though airborne transmission seems to be very limited for ncovid-19). Similar methods of prevention. Similar mechanism for deaths - pneumonia for the most part - and similar protocols for treating serious cases. Similar age profile for mortality rates. Sure, the flu is not a coronavirus. But it’s actually a pretty good analogy to help understand it.

The main risk is not the virus itself, it’s how people react to it. That’s critically important. It’s particularly important in the US, which has failed to prepare in any meaningful way, and where the healthcare system is a disaster and people avoid seeking treatment due to the cost.

There’s enough solid advice on this thread and way too much hysteria, so I’m going to exit the conversation at this point. Much of what you say I agree with, but it is not helpful to encourage people to panic.
Italy has mortality close to 4% from reported figures. Presumably they have 1st world standard of medical care.

This is no ordinary flu - see the graph from Norwegian's post from here:

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronav ... ?r=US&IR=T
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Nicholas Weeks
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Nicholas Weeks » Sun Mar 08, 2020 5:30 pm

Scary chart Norwegian - but clarify - is the source the Chinese CDC (via Business Insider) or the USA CDC?

I see no such chart at the USA CDC site.
Last edited by Nicholas Weeks on Sun Mar 08, 2020 5:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
May all seek, find or follow the Path of Buddhas.

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