in the linked NYT article it reported what Merkel said. Then it said those were the high estimates. It then quoted someone I’ve never heard of with the 30%-60% infection estimate. I’m going off the credibility of the NYT as knowing who to quote.Malcolm wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:51 amAssuming a 20 percent infection rate with a maximal response from the international community.smcj wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:44 amOut of curiosity, what’s your source for those numbers? As I posted above, Merkel just told the Germans to expect 60%-70% infection rate.Malcolm wrote:There are 7 billion people on the planet. It is likely that up to 1.4 billion people will be infected. Of those up to 42 million people will die.
If there is a global 60-70 percent infection rate, 60 percent is 4,200,000,000. 4 percent of that is 168,000,000 deaths world wide.
Personally I’d like to assume a 10% infection with less than 1% case fatality rate. But I don’t have a source for that.
Do you have a source for your figures? In particular 4% case fatality seems high with current data. (Of course current data is unreliable, so all these figures are meaningless.)