What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Casual conversation between friends. Anything goes (almost).
smcj
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by smcj » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:00 am

Malcolm wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:51 am
smcj wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:44 am
Malcolm wrote:There are 7 billion people on the planet. It is likely that up to 1.4 billion people will be infected. Of those up to 42 million people will die.
Out of curiosity, what’s your source for those numbers? As I posted above, Merkel just told the Germans to expect 60%-70% infection rate.
Assuming a 20 percent infection rate with a maximal response from the international community.

If there is a global 60-70 percent infection rate, 60 percent is 4,200,000,000. 4 percent of that is 168,000,000 deaths world wide.
in the linked NYT article it reported what Merkel said. Then it said those were the high estimates. It then quoted someone I’ve never heard of with the 30%-60% infection estimate. I’m going off the credibility of the NYT as knowing who to quote.

Personally I’d like to assume a 10% infection with less than 1% case fatality rate. But I don’t have a source for that.

Do you have a source for your figures? In particular 4% case fatality seems high with current data. (Of course current data is unreliable, so all these figures are meaningless.)
1.The problem isn’t ‘ignorance’. The problem is the mind you have right now. (H.H. Karmapa XVII @NYC 2/4/18)
2. I support Mingyur R and HHDL in their positions against lama abuse.
3. Student: Lama, I thought I might die but then I realized that the 3 Jewels would protect me.
Lama: Even If you had died the 3 Jewels would still have protected you. (DW post by Fortyeightvows)

Malcolm
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Malcolm » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:07 am

smcj wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:00 am
Malcolm wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:51 am
smcj wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:44 am

Out of curiosity, what’s your source for those numbers? As I posted above, Merkel just told the Germans to expect 60%-70% infection rate.
Assuming a 20 percent infection rate with a maximal response from the international community.

If there is a global 60-70 percent infection rate, 60 percent is 4,200,000,000. 4 percent of that is 168,000,000 deaths world wide.
in the linked NYT article it reported what Merkel said. Then it said those were the high estimates. It then quoted someone I’ve never heard of with the 30%-60% infection estimate. I’m going off the credibility of the NYT as knowing who to quote. Infection rate of covid-19 is R02-3. Flu is R01.5

Personally I’d like to assume a 10% infection with less than 1% case fatality rate. But I don’t have a source for that.

Do you have a source for your figures? In particular 4% case fatality seems high with current data. (Of course current data is unreliable, so all these figures are meaningless.)
Fatality rate of covid-19 is somewhere between 3-4 percent of known infected cases. That might go down as more data comes in. However, whether It is 168 million or 84 million or 42 million, that’s still too many.

smcj
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by smcj » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:26 am

Fatality rate of covid-19 is somewhere between 3-4 percent of known infected cases. That might go down as more data comes in. However, whether It is 168 million or 84 million or 42 million, that’s still too many.
168M would be more than 2% of the global population. That’s up in Spanish Flu territory. But Spanish Flu was 10%-20% lethal. I guess that means the Spanish Flu did not have infection rates as high as these estimates.

So hopefully your estimates will be more accurate—or even too high. Only time will tell.
1.The problem isn’t ‘ignorance’. The problem is the mind you have right now. (H.H. Karmapa XVII @NYC 2/4/18)
2. I support Mingyur R and HHDL in their positions against lama abuse.
3. Student: Lama, I thought I might die but then I realized that the 3 Jewels would protect me.
Lama: Even If you had died the 3 Jewels would still have protected you. (DW post by Fortyeightvows)

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Virgo
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Virgo » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:32 am

Chris Hayes on how the U.S. is on Italy's trajectory:



Virgo

Malcolm
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Malcolm » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:33 am

smcj wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:26 am
Fatality rate of covid-19 is somewhere between 3-4 percent of known infected cases. That might go down as more data comes in. However, whether It is 168 million or 84 million or 42 million, that’s still too many.
168M would be more than 2% of the global population. That’s up in Spanish Flu territory. But Spanish Flu was 10%-20% lethal. I guess that means the Spanish Flu did not have infection rates as high as these estimates.

So hopefully your estimates will be more accurate—or even too high. Only time will tell.
Covid-19 is 2 to 3 times more infectious than the flu.

smcj
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by smcj » Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:44 am

Malcolm wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:33 am
smcj wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 4:26 am
Fatality rate of covid-19 is somewhere between 3-4 percent of known infected cases. That might go down as more data comes in. However, whether It is 168 million or 84 million or 42 million, that’s still too many.
168M would be more than 2% of the global population. That’s up in Spanish Flu territory. But Spanish Flu was 10%-20% lethal. I guess that means the Spanish Flu did not have infection rates as high as these estimates.

So hopefully your estimates will be more accurate—or even too high. Only time will tell.
Covid-19 is 2 to 3 times more infectious than the flu.
Depending on the specific outbreak, Ebola was 25%-90% fatal in Africa. But it petered out in the US. Let’s hope Covid 19 peters out here too.

Nothing left to do but wait. Personally I’m going to use this situation to contemplate the “uncertainty of time of death” portion of the meditation on death. Might as well find some good use for it.
1.The problem isn’t ‘ignorance’. The problem is the mind you have right now. (H.H. Karmapa XVII @NYC 2/4/18)
2. I support Mingyur R and HHDL in their positions against lama abuse.
3. Student: Lama, I thought I might die but then I realized that the 3 Jewels would protect me.
Lama: Even If you had died the 3 Jewels would still have protected you. (DW post by Fortyeightvows)

Malcolm
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Malcolm » Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:13 am

4. Plan for hospitals to be overwhelmed, as happened in Wuhan, China, and in Iran and northern Italy. Epidemiological models suggest that by late April we could have millions of Americans infected, and the danger is that people with other ailments die for want of care in the chaos. Several epidemiologists suggest that we could easily see 100 million infections of the new coronavirus in the United States, of which 5 or 10 percent might require hospitalization and 1 percent might need a ventilator. That could mean almost one million people needing ventilators just for Covid-19, though not all at the same time, yet we have only about 72,000 full ventilators in the United States.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/opin ... states.htm

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Lucas Oliveira
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Lucas Oliveira » Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:14 am

smcj wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:00 am
Review of "Evidence of the Afterlife"
http://neardth.com/evidence-of-the-afterlife.php
Lol, this life IS you previous life’s afterlife!
So we don't need to be too concerned about Covid-19.

we just need to worry about ignorance.

:namaste:
I participate in this forum using Google Translator. https://translate.google.com.br/

http://www.acessoaoinsight.net/

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Wayfarer
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Wayfarer » Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:20 am

Infection rates in Wuhan, in particular, and China, generally, seem to have peaked and are declining:
In China, where the epidemic began, the daily case numbers continue to drop. On Wednesday, just 24 new infections were reported, 10 of which involve people who had traveled abroad, suggesting a lower rate of community transmission, according to health authorities.

China's National Health Commission said six new cases had been reported in the capital, Beijing, but that five of them were patients who had traveled to Italy and the sixth to the U.S., according to the South China Morning Post.

The precipitous drop in new cases in China, where 80,778 cases have been diagnosed since the outbreak began in December, caused local officials to begin relaxing travel restrictions that were imposed in January, as the government struggled to contain the virus' spread.
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandso ... f-epidemic

I think the predictions of tens of millions or hundreds of millions of deaths are wildly overstated.
'Only practice with no gaining idea' ~ Suzuki Roshi

smcj
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by smcj » Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:28 am

I think the predictions of tens of millions or hundreds of millions of deaths are wildly overstated.
Let us hope so.
1.The problem isn’t ‘ignorance’. The problem is the mind you have right now. (H.H. Karmapa XVII @NYC 2/4/18)
2. I support Mingyur R and HHDL in their positions against lama abuse.
3. Student: Lama, I thought I might die but then I realized that the 3 Jewels would protect me.
Lama: Even If you had died the 3 Jewels would still have protected you. (DW post by Fortyeightvows)

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Wayfarer
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Wayfarer » Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:29 am

I think extrapolating, with a calculator, what 'possible death rates' might be on the basis of primitive calculations is entirely unwarranted and possibly even amount to dangerous misinformation. I would encourage the moderators to watch this thread closely.
'Only practice with no gaining idea' ~ Suzuki Roshi

Malcolm
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Malcolm » Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:34 am

Wayfarer wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:20 am

I think the predictions of tens of millions or hundreds of millions of deaths are wildly overstated.

Let’s say there are 65 million infections in the US, roughly 20% of our population, as proposed today in Congress. Assuming a fatality rate of 2%, that is 1.3 million deaths. Apply this to world population of seven billion, this means 28,000,000 deaths.

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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Malcolm » Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:54 am

Wayfarer wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:29 am
I think extrapolating, with a calculator, what 'possible death rates' might be on the basis of primitive calculations is entirely unwarranted and possibly even amount to dangerous misinformation. I would encourage the moderators to watch this thread closely.
The WHO’s fatality rate for covid-19 infections as of 3/3/2020 is 3.4 percent. Therefore, my primitive calculations revised this down to 2%, just to be on the conservative side.
Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care.
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source ... 96b04adf_2

We are looking at a situation in which Africa, large parts of S. America, SE Asia, India, etc., have inadequate health care systems for coping with pandemics. The Trump administration’s lack of preparation combined with Trump’s eliminating the NSC’s global pandemic response apparatus in 2018 could and probably will result in fatalities much higher than in China. Simply put, we do not have enough resources worldwide to a) stop the pandemic b) to treat the most severely ill.

Also Dr. Fauci explained to Congress today that covid-19 is ten time more fatal than the flu. Now the flu usually has a fatality rate of 0.1%. That makes the fatality rate for covid-19 1%, but that’s just a guess. Assuming 1.4 billion people become ill, this still 14 million deaths worldwide.

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Wayfarer
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Wayfarer » Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:29 am

but there is absolutely no use a bunch of internet amateurs trying to forecast statistics. It just adds to the fear, uncertainty and doubt, and risks creating more misinformation. Yes, it's a pandemic, and a very serious situation, but I don't see how this kind of prapanca helps.
'Only practice with no gaining idea' ~ Suzuki Roshi

Malcolm
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Malcolm » Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:33 am

Wayfarer wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:29 am
but there is absolutely no use a bunch of internet amateurs trying to forecast statistics. It just adds to the fear, uncertainty and doubt, and risks creating more misinformation. Yes, it's a pandemic, and a very serious situation, but I don't see how this kind of prapanca helps.
Whose forecasting stats? These are the numbers being put out by the experts. But hey, if it freaks you out, read another thread.

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tobes
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by tobes » Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:17 am

Malcolm wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:34 am
tobes wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:22 am
Malcolm wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:17 am


Cool? Are you high?
How about you make a contribution to this instead of mocking my word choices.
Your word choice indicates you have not grasped the seriousness of the situation. There are 7 billion people on the planet. It is likely that up to 1.4 billion people will be infected. Of those up to 42 million people will die. People can catch this more than once.

The above estimate is conservative and assumes maximal response from the international community. Infection rates in the US are expected to be 65 to 150 million.
You're trolling. Stop it please.

I'm saying to the Dharmawheel community: now is the time for some collective practice. I really mean it. I've tried a few times. The world needs our help.

And you want to make ungrounded inferences about the adjectives I use...... :shrug:

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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Dan74 » Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:18 am

tobes wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:17 am
Malcolm wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:34 am
tobes wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:22 am


How about you make a contribution to this instead of mocking my word choices.
Your word choice indicates you have not grasped the seriousness of the situation. There are 7 billion people on the planet. It is likely that up to 1.4 billion people will be infected. Of those up to 42 million people will die. People can catch this more than once.

The above estimate is conservative and assumes maximal response from the international community. Infection rates in the US are expected to be 65 to 150 million.
You're trolling. Stop it please.

I'm saying to the Dharmawheel community: now is the time for some collective practice. I really mean it. I've tried a few times. The world needs our help.

And you want to make ungrounded inferences about the adjectives I use...... :shrug:
What kind of a collective practice do you have in mind, tobes? What form would it take??

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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Mantrik » Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:39 am

Words mean a lot.
The UK Chief Medical Officer was clear that measures were being taken, in tandem, to Contain and Delay the spread of the virus. He said so a week or so ago.
This thought made the Govt panic so they assured everyone we were still in the 'Contain' phase.
They are shortly to announce that we are 'entering' the Delay phase.
It is unlikely they will use the wording: 'We have now given up trying to Contain the virus'. But that is what they mean.
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Simon E. » Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:05 am

We should have had a big advantage in that we have no land borders That has been lost through Government indecision. Flights have been arriving from Covid19 hotspots and instead os isolation, or at least strong recommendations of self isolation, people have been travelling on or to home. Many of them on public transport...... :roll:
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Nemo
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Nemo » Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:27 am

I think Malcolm is understandably frustrated as I am at the lack of urgency. If the math scares you it's not the math that has a problem. Let's take a look at infection rates taken 1 day apart. Look how much difference 24hrs can have during a crisis.
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I have a friend who flew back to Italy and she says one of the largest problems is the "just a flu Bros" who can't understand the importance of stopping this early. They are being incredibly lax with containment. Like our friends on the right who can't understand climate change they cannot wrap their macho heads around admitting this is scary and doing something to make sure other people don't die. These macho attitudes make us too slow.

If we had the urgency we have now in January this would have been easy. Now that effort will barely slow it down. I get it. Math is hard and dealing with this properly now feels like an overreaction. But 2 cycles later it's nowhere near enough. It's interesting the people I know in tech and finance get this very easily since they visualize exponential growth for a living.
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