What are you doing about the coronavirus?

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DNS
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by DNS » Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:30 am

Some Las Vegas buffets have suspended operations.
https://www.today.com/food/coronavirus- ... ts-t175696

Stock market crashing on a daily basis.
Vacations being canceled.
Conventions, etc., this is really going to hit all cities hard (economically), but especially cities that depend heavily on tourism like Vegas, San Francisco, etc.

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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Virgo » Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:29 am



Virgo

mikenz66
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by mikenz66 » Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:01 am

Malcolm wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:30 pm
Dan74 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:01 pm
Malcolm wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:39 pm
Oh, you missed my point--the pandemic is the outcome of authoritarian hamfistedness.
Do you mean the Chinese reacting slowly? Or which?
Yes, and the present clusterf*&^ being created by Mr. Trump, etc.
I've no love for the Chinese government (or Trump, I hasten to add), but the analysis in this article https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavi ... o lockdown suggests that the action was quite quick (compared to Europe).

Image

To save reading the whole article:
1. The orange bars are the official, diagnosed new cases on a particular day. That's the statistics you see reported.
2. The grey bars are the inferred actual number on a particular day. Due to the incubation period, cases are detected 10 or so days after someone is actually infected. The grey bars take that into account.

So the lockdown was at a few hundred official cases in Hubei (a province about the same size as Italy).

There may well have been a coverup early on (I've certainly seen hints of that from Chinese friends), but they took decisive action when they did the math [they had the SARS experience in Southern China (Guangdong/Hong Kong)]. People who study spread of diseases would be quite familiar with such calculations - they are not hard if you know some math...

And, of course, there may well still be coverups. But look at the statistics for Hong Kong. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
It's still quite locked down. I had a video conference yesterday with included Australia and Shenzhen. In Shenzhen my colleague said she can go to work, but the students are not in session, and if she travels to another city she has to self-isolate for two weeks.

South Korea had some bad luck, but has managed to stop the growth at a much lower level than Italy. You can see from the stats in the link above (sort on Total/Million) that there are 6 countries in Europe with higher cases/million than China. And they are still growing exponentially...

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Mike

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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Sādhaka » Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:03 am

What might this imply:


https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/32133832/


“Results: When the infection rate of the close contacts and the sensitivity and specificity of reported results were taken as the point estimates, the positive predictive value of the active screening was only 19.67%, in contrast, the false-positive rate of positive results was 80.33%. The multivariate-probabilistic sensitivity analysis results supported the base-case findings, with a 75% probability for the false-positive rate of positive results over 47%.

“Conclusions: In the close contacts of COVID-19 patients, nearly half or even more of the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' reported in the active nucleic acid test screening might be false positives."

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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Nemo » Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:12 pm

mikenz66 wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 6:01 am
Malcolm wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:30 pm
Dan74 wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:01 pm

Do you mean the Chinese reacting slowly? Or which?
Yes, and the present clusterf*&^ being created by Mr. Trump, etc.
I've no love for the Chinese government (or Trump, I hasten to add), but the analysis in this article https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavi ... o lockdown suggests that the action was quite quick (compared to Europe).

Image

To save reading the whole article:
1. The orange bars are the official, diagnosed new cases on a particular day. That's the statistics you see reported.
2. The grey bars are the inferred actual number on a particular day. Due to the incubation period, cases are detected 10 or so days after someone is actually infected. The grey bars take that into account.

So the lockdown was at a few hundred official cases in Hubei (a province about the same size as Italy).

There may well have been a coverup early on (I've certainly seen hints of that from Chinese friends), but they took decisive action when they did the math [they had the SARS experience in Southern China (Guangdong/Hong Kong)]. People who study spread of diseases would be quite familiar with such calculations - they are not hard if you know some math...

And, of course, there may well still be coverups. But look at the statistics for Hong Kong. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
It's still quite locked down. I had a video conference yesterday with included Australia and Shenzhen. In Shenzhen my colleague said she can go to work, but the students are not in session, and if she travels to another city she has to self-isolate for two weeks.

South Korea had some bad luck, but has managed to stop the growth at a much lower level than Italy. You can see from the stats in the link above (sort on Total/Million) that there are 6 countries in Europe with higher cases/million than China. And they are still growing exponentially...

:heart:
Mike
That is a sanitized timeline. First case is now tracked back to Nov 17. First samples were destroyed on Jan 2 or 3 depending which side of the date line you are on. China's initial reaction was to hide it. Once docs leaked the info internationally they took decisive action to save face. At best their reaction is a C+. They did try hard eventually but those missed days have now infected the entire world. Thanks CCP. By comparison America would be lucky to get a D at this point. Thanks Trump. So are you intending we mark on a bell curve?

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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Queequeg » Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:25 pm

In NYC, Mayor has stated that he will fight "tooth and nail" to keep the public schools open.

The main reasons appear to be:
1. There are many children who would not be able to eat if school is canceled; many poor children rely on school lunches.
2. Without school, many parents who cannot afford it will be forced to take off work.

There are some ramifications that have been discussed - if children are out of school, they may end up with grandparents or other older people who are at greater risk if they are infected.

I have two small children and one aspect about them I accept is that they are little disease vectors - whatever is going around schools will get to the rest of our family. My parents are in good health but old - I'm most worried about them.

Even though my children's school is not suspended, I am wary about sending them.

I've heard that covid doesn't spread as easily among children... is this true? I figure you fellas can thoroughly talk an issue like this out.
Those who, even with distracted minds,
Entered a stupa compound
And chanted but once, “Namo Buddhaya!”
Have certainly attained the path of the buddhas.

-Lotus Sutra, Expedient Means Chapter

There are beings with little dust in their eyes who are falling away because they do not hear the Dhamma. There will be those who will understand the Dhamma.
-Ayacana Sutta

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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Malcolm » Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:26 pm

Wayfarer wrote:
Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:20 am
Infection rates in Wuhan, in particular, and China, generally, seem to have peaked and are declining:
In China, where the epidemic began, the daily case numbers continue to drop. On Wednesday, just 24 new infections were reported, 10 of which involve people who had traveled abroad, suggesting a lower rate of community transmission, according to health authorities.

China's National Health Commission said six new cases had been reported in the capital, Beijing, but that five of them were patients who had traveled to Italy and the sixth to the U.S., according to the South China Morning Post.

The precipitous drop in new cases in China, where 80,778 cases have been diagnosed since the outbreak began in December, caused local officials to begin relaxing travel restrictions that were imposed in January, as the government struggled to contain the virus' spread.
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandso ... f-epidemic

I think the predictions of tens of millions or hundreds of millions of deaths are wildly overstated.
Between 160 million and 214 million people in the U.S. could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to one projection. That could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die.


And, the calculations based on the C.D.C.’s scenarios suggested, 2.4 million to 21 million people in the U.S. could require hospitalization, potentially crushing the nation’s medical system, which has only about 925,000 staffed hospital beds. Fewer than a tenth of those are for people who are critically ill.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/c ... imate.html

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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Malcolm » Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:30 pm

Queequeg wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:25 pm
In NYC, Mayor has stated that he will fight "tooth and nail" to keep the public schools open.

The main reasons appear to be:
1. There are many children who would not be able to eat if school is canceled; many poor children rely on school lunches.
2. Without school, many parents who cannot afford it will be forced to take off work.

There are some ramifications that have been discussed - if children are out of school, they may end up with grandparents or other older people who are at greater risk if they are infected.

I have two small children and one aspect about them I accept is that they are little disease vectors - whatever is going around schools will get to the rest of our family. My parents are in good health but old - I'm most worried about them.

Even though my children's school is not suspended, I am wary about sending them.

I've heard that covid doesn't spread as easily among children... is this true? I figure you fellas can thoroughly talk an issue like this out.
Keep them at home, friend.

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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Nemo » Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:36 pm

Queequeg wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:25 pm
In NYC, Mayor has stated that he will fight "tooth and nail" to keep the public schools open.

The main reasons appear to be:
1. There are many children who would not be able to eat if school is canceled; many poor children rely on school lunches.
2. Without school, many parents who cannot afford it will be forced to take off work.

There are some ramifications that have been discussed - if children are out of school, they may end up with grandparents or other older people who are at greater risk if they are infected.

I have two small children and one aspect about them I accept is that they are little disease vectors - whatever is going around schools will get to the rest of our family. My parents are in good health but old - I'm most worried about them.

Even though my children's school is not suspended, I am wary about sending them.

I've heard that covid doesn't spread as easily among children... is this true? I figure you fellas can thoroughly talk an issue like this out.
This issue was discussed exhaustively here. It was complicated by the fact that so many nurses have kids in school and if they closed staffing at hospitals would be adversely effected. Kids get infected but they are less likely to be serious cases. Here we are talking about economic measures to soften the economic consequences on poor families. Once that was decided we closed the schools starting today. In my city there are only 2 confirmed cases so far.

The survival of the fittest noises your politicians are making needs to be stamped out. You can't stop community infections efficiently that way. I mean the will stop, but with an R0 between 4 and 7 that could be 70% of the population. That is the freezer trucks at every hospital method of infection control.

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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by tkp67 » Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:46 pm

I like to think proactive measures to avoid overwhelming amount of viral transmission at any time will be fruitful.

Wife started screen patients for it, I asked her what she thought her infection rate was as she said, "zero". :shrug:

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Nemo
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Nemo » Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:24 pm

7 new genomes from Germany. This thing is fascinatingly prolific.
https://nextstrain.org/ncov?l=radial

Also this is very interesting.
“Temperature and latitude analysis to predict potential spread and seasonality for COVID-19”
Prefers 4-11C and 47-79% humidity. Airborne transmission under certain ideal conditions perhaps? If you go out in that range definitely wear a mask.
Image
Last edited by Nemo on Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by PeterC » Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:26 pm

D649ED06-4735-4D9C-A6E6-28CE2150A115.jpeg
D649ED06-4735-4D9C-A6E6-28CE2150A115.jpeg (220.32 KiB) Viewed 896 times

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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by smcj » Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:34 pm

Rachel Maddow interviewing someone about China’s protocols.

https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/wa ... wjgjzZ5Bxo

Dictatorships can be more efficient. Usually that’s bad, but sometimes it’s good.
1.The problem isn’t ‘ignorance’. The problem is the mind you have right now. (H.H. Karmapa XVII @NYC 2/4/18)
2. I support Mingyur R and HHDL in their positions against lama abuse.
3. Student: Lama, I thought I might die but then I realized that the 3 Jewels would protect me.
Lama: Even If you had died the 3 Jewels would still have protected you. (DW post by Fortyeightvows)

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Queequeg
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Queequeg » Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:45 pm

Sorry that I asked about something that was discussed... gotta review these 17 pages.
Thanks, fellas. Short is, gotta keep these kids home.
Those who, even with distracted minds,
Entered a stupa compound
And chanted but once, “Namo Buddhaya!”
Have certainly attained the path of the buddhas.

-Lotus Sutra, Expedient Means Chapter

There are beings with little dust in their eyes who are falling away because they do not hear the Dhamma. There will be those who will understand the Dhamma.
-Ayacana Sutta

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Nemo
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Nemo » Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:52 pm

Queequeg wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:45 pm
Sorry that I asked about something that was discussed... gotta review these 17 pages.
Thanks, fellas. Short is, gotta keep these kids home.
No, by here I meant my town with public health officials. Sorry.

It's becoming obvious without a massive community effort fighting the virus is logistically impossible.

Malcolm
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Malcolm » Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:07 pm

smcj wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:34 pm
Rachel Maddow interviewing someone about China’s protocols.

https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/wa ... wjgjzZ5Bxo

Dictatorships can be more efficient. Usually that’s bad, but sometimes it’s good.
Yeah, and what happens when they start letting people move around again? And, as far as I concerned, China is not telling the truth about their numbers.

Malcolm
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Malcolm » Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:10 pm

Nemo wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 1:36 pm

The survival of the fittest noises your politicians are making needs to be stamped out.
Are you kidding, it's all about the ratings, got to keep those ratings up no matter who dies.

smcj
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by smcj » Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:22 pm

Malcolm wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 3:07 pm
smcj wrote:
Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:34 pm
Rachel Maddow interviewing someone about China’s protocols.

https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/wa ... wjgjzZ5Bxo

Dictatorships can be more efficient. Usually that’s bad, but sometimes it’s good.
Yeah, and what happens when they start letting people move around again? And, as far as I concerned,
Presumably it spreads as before. That was touched on in the interview.
China is not telling the truth about their numbers.
Another downside of dictatorships.
1.The problem isn’t ‘ignorance’. The problem is the mind you have right now. (H.H. Karmapa XVII @NYC 2/4/18)
2. I support Mingyur R and HHDL in their positions against lama abuse.
3. Student: Lama, I thought I might die but then I realized that the 3 Jewels would protect me.
Lama: Even If you had died the 3 Jewels would still have protected you. (DW post by Fortyeightvows)

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Nicholas Weeks
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Nicholas Weeks » Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:36 pm

No sporting events, far less socialization, even public libraries are shutting down. Well, not here, not completely - yet.
To help prevent the spread of COVID-19, public computers will be unavailable through 31 Mar. Free Wi-Fi is available (LA Public Library) at all library locations. As a precaution to prevent the spread of the COVID-19 virus, we have canceled all programs.
By 'programs' they mean story time for kids, varied club & group gatherings, talks from authors etc.

But some good news:
Nepal has closed all of its Himalayan peaks, including Mount Everest this climbing season, because of fears of the coronavirus outbreak, a government minister said on Friday.

Nepal, home to eight of the world’s 14 highest mountains, including Mount Everest, gets more than four million dollars in permit fees for the world’s highest peak and other mountains every year.

Tourism Minister Yogesh Bhattarai said expeditions to all peaks in the March-May spring season had been suspended.

“Climbing this season has been closed,” Bhattarai told Reuters.
Last edited by Nicholas Weeks on Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
May all seek, find or follow the Path of Buddhas.

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Dan74
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Dan74 » Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:42 pm

All schools and unis closed here at least until April 4, but probably longer. No gatherings over 50 people allowed. All borders staffed and checked.

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