What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Casual conversation between friends. Anything goes (almost).
smcj
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by smcj » Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:17 am

Koreans aren’t magicians. They just have competent public servants who do their jobs: and enough experience with flu pandemics to know the basic playbook. That’s what divides the countries who have this under control from those who don’t.
Ouch.
1.The problem isn’t ‘ignorance’. The problem is the mind you have right now. (H.H. Karmapa XVII @NYC 2/4/18)
2. I support Mingyur R and HHDL in their positions against lama abuse.
3. Student: Lama, I thought I might die but then I realized that the 3 Jewels would protect me.
Lama: Even If you had died the 3 Jewels would still have protected you. (DW post by Fortyeightvows)

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PeterC
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by PeterC » Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:20 am

smcj wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:17 am
Koreans aren’t magicians. They just have competent public servants who do their jobs: and enough experience with flu pandemics to know the basic playbook. That’s what divides the countries who have this under control from those who don’t.
Ouch.
We’ve got to face facts on this. The senate has been arguing over a rescue package for almost two weeks now, while their own members test positive for this. We are governed by corrupt morons. There’s no help coming. State governors need to take matters into their own hands at this point. Many already are.

Norwegian
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Norwegian » Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:41 am

There's one thing that might be a factor here, in terms of numbers and control of the disease in Asia, vs. how the situation is in Europe, and how things might be in the US: There are two strains of SARS-CoV-2. One is slow, and milder, the other is very fast-moving, and aggressive. And it appears that China/Asia primarily has the slow-moving strain. So, this then is easier to control than what Europe is experiencing right now. I have not read further on what is what where, so I am not sure what strain is moving about in the US. But it's worth considering this aspect of the pandemic outbreak, when talking about the results of how these things are handled.
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PeterC
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by PeterC » Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:54 am

Norwegian wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:41 am
There's one thing that might be a factor here, in terms of numbers and control of the disease in Asia, vs. how the situation is in Europe, and how things might be in the US: There are two strains of SARS-CoV-2. One is slow, and milder, the other is very fast-moving, and aggressive. And it appears that China/Asia primarily has the slow-moving strain. So, this then is easier to control than what Europe is experiencing right now. I have not read further on what is what where, so I am not sure what strain is moving about in the US. But it's worth considering this aspect of the pandemic outbreak, when talking about the results of how these things are handled.
That’s interesting. Have you seen any research on prevalence by strain by region? Both are circulating everywhere but it would be very interesting if some countries had more of one.

Another important factor is basic public health precautions. Since the start of February you can’t enter an office building, restaurant or shopping mall in places like Singapore Taiwan or Hong Kong without a temperature check, hand sanitizing sprays are everywhere, and if you walk around without a mask people walk away from you. The entire population is getting their temperature checked multiple times a day. This is all in addition to whatever the formal healthcare system is doing.

smcj
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by smcj » Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:23 am

From a guy at Cal Tech:
About two weeks ago, we had our initial case, and now in New York City newly diagnosed confirmed cases are tripling every two days.
https://www.caltech.edu/about/news/tip ... ADIS6A4XQA

Tripling every two days? :jawdrop:

I thought doubling every three days was bad!

I guess this part of the curve didn’t get flattened.
1.The problem isn’t ‘ignorance’. The problem is the mind you have right now. (H.H. Karmapa XVII @NYC 2/4/18)
2. I support Mingyur R and HHDL in their positions against lama abuse.
3. Student: Lama, I thought I might die but then I realized that the 3 Jewels would protect me.
Lama: Even If you had died the 3 Jewels would still have protected you. (DW post by Fortyeightvows)

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PeterC
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by PeterC » Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:06 am

smcj wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:23 am
From a guy at Cal Tech:
About two weeks ago, we had our initial case, and now in New York City newly diagnosed confirmed cases are tripling every two days.
https://www.caltech.edu/about/news/tip ... ADIS6A4XQA

Tripling every two days? :jawdrop:

I thought doubling every three days was bad!

I guess this part of the curve didn’t get flattened.
That's the wrong question they're asking. The issue isn't how quickly it's spreading now. The issue is how far it's spread since the first cases arrived in the US in January. Pick your assumption on doubling time and do the math.

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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by muni » Wed Mar 25, 2020 8:37 am

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Pero
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Pero » Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:35 am

PeterC wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:16 am
The mortality rate seems to depend heavily on the ability of the healthcare system to, well, care. The Koreans experienced a case-based mortality rate of 0.1%. Why? Because they tested the most intensively and treated aggressively. Italy reports a case-based mortality rate of about 8%, because testing is slow and treatment resources constrained. Unfortunately we can’t separate the effects of broader testing to reveal the true mortality rate and better treatment, but from a public health perspective, we don’t need to, the conclusion is the same, you need to do both.
Korean mortality rate is 1.4%.
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PeterC
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by PeterC » Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:04 am

Pero wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:35 am
PeterC wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:16 am
The mortality rate seems to depend heavily on the ability of the healthcare system to, well, care. The Koreans experienced a case-based mortality rate of 0.1%. Why? Because they tested the most intensively and treated aggressively. Italy reports a case-based mortality rate of about 8%, because testing is slow and treatment resources constrained. Unfortunately we can’t separate the effects of broader testing to reveal the true mortality rate and better treatment, but from a public health perspective, we don’t need to, the conclusion is the same, you need to do both.
Korean mortality rate is 1.4%.
Yes you're right, decimal point error. Korea reports 9,137 cases and 126 deaths as of today. The point still stands, as Italy reports 69,176 cases and 6,820 deaths, a 9.9% case-based mortality rate.

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PeterC
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by PeterC » Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:30 am

smcj wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:17 am
Koreans aren’t magicians. They just have competent public servants who do their jobs: and enough experience with flu pandemics to know the basic playbook. That’s what divides the countries who have this under control from those who don’t.
Ouch.
They're not being very subtle about the implied criticism at this point.


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Nemo
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Nemo » Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:31 pm

PeterC wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:04 am
Pero wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:35 am
PeterC wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:16 am
The mortality rate seems to depend heavily on the ability of the healthcare system to, well, care. The Koreans experienced a case-based mortality rate of 0.1%. Why? Because they tested the most intensively and treated aggressively. Italy reports a case-based mortality rate of about 8%, because testing is slow and treatment resources constrained. Unfortunately we can’t separate the effects of broader testing to reveal the true mortality rate and better treatment, but from a public health perspective, we don’t need to, the conclusion is the same, you need to do both.
Korean mortality rate is 1.4%.
Yes you're right, decimal point error. Korea reports 9,137 cases and 126 deaths as of today. The point still stands, as Italy reports 69,176 cases and 6,820 deaths, a 9.9% case-based mortality rate.
So what if China was under reporting cases by 90% for the reasons I stated earlier(it backs up the timeline significantly). If they weren't Italian deaths should have climbed to over 1000 a day already. If you look at case fatalities for healthy people, the largest cohort, from Italy it's only 0.8%. 48.5% have 3 or more major comorbidities. 3 or more is a very small slice of Italians to be so represented unless infection rates are ridiculously high. 76% had arterial hypertension and 100% under 40 had a comorbidity. What if the real fatality rate was more like 0.5% and the R0 is much higher than we expected? It means Italy is approaching herd immunity not falling off a cliff. It was simply too late for containment to have much effect. If not explain how it found every old vulnerable person in Italy?

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PeterC
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by PeterC » Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:27 pm

Nemo wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:31 pm
PeterC wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:04 am
Pero wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:35 am


Korean mortality rate is 1.4%.
Yes you're right, decimal point error. Korea reports 9,137 cases and 126 deaths as of today. The point still stands, as Italy reports 69,176 cases and 6,820 deaths, a 9.9% case-based mortality rate.
So what if China was under reporting cases by 90% for the reasons I stated earlier(it backs up the timeline significantly).
I don’t think that’s true, for various reasons, among them that a coverup of that size would have been exposed

I do think that the true number of untested cases is about 5x what is reported in China due to the numbers of people who recovered in lockdown, as I mentioned above
If they weren't Italian deaths should have climbed to over 1000 a day already. If you look at case fatalities for healthy people, the largest cohort, from Italy it's only 0.8%. 48.5% have 3 or more major comorbidities. 3 or more is a very small slice of Italians to be so represented unless infection rates are ridiculously high. 76% had arterial hypertension and 100% under 40 had a comorbidity.
Yes, but compare that 0.8% to case-based mortality for the same demographics elsewhere and those numbers are considerably smaller. We still have the problem that for all demographics, Italian mortality rates are simply higher. Now the average Korean or Singaporean is probably a lot healthier than the average Italian. The average elderly Korean is *much* healthier than an Italian of the same age. But by that much? I don’t know. We’re dealing with too many issues that would affect the accuracy of the estimates.
What if the real fatality rate was more like 0.5% and the R0 is much higher than we expected? It means Italy is approaching herd immunity not falling off a cliff. It was simply too late for containment to have much effect. If not explain how it found every old vulnerable person in Italy?
The issue with estimating R0 is that the observed numbers reflect both the behavior of the pathogen and also the accompanying social behavior. But yes. I would agree that the mortality is a lot lower than initial crude mortality estimates suggested, as one would expect, observed case based mortality should fall as testing expands.

But we still have a problem explaining Italy. One possible answer to your question is that, as some reports suggest, this disease was present in Italy in November. The probable vector is the Chinese labor used in Italian garment manufacturing. That explains why it was too widespread for any containment efforts to work. Then how would we explain the mortality? If your theory is correct, the only explanation is that testing in Italy is still severely constrained. That may be the case, I haven’t looked at the numbers of tests they’re running vs suspected but untested cases.

Malcolm
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Malcolm » Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:59 pm

PeterC wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:27 pm
But we still have a problem explaining Italy.
Mexico is the next major disaster area. They are totally unprepared, and they also have a complete douche as a leader.

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PeterC
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by PeterC » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:50 pm

Malcolm wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:59 pm
PeterC wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:27 pm
But we still have a problem explaining Italy.
Mexico is the next major disaster area. They are totally unprepared, and they also have a complete douche as a leader.
Russia may not have got the memo either

Malcolm
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Malcolm » Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:02 pm

PeterC wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:50 pm
Malcolm wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:59 pm
PeterC wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:27 pm
But we still have a problem explaining Italy.
Mexico is the next major disaster area. They are totally unprepared, and they also have a complete douche as a leader.
Russia may not have got the memo either
They got it, but are ignoring it, and worse, are actively spreading disinformation about it.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronav ... ses-2020-3

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PeterC
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by PeterC » Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:17 pm

Malcolm wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:02 pm
PeterC wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:50 pm
Malcolm wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:59 pm


Mexico is the next major disaster area. They are totally unprepared, and they also have a complete douche as a leader.
Russia may not have got the memo either
They got it, but are ignoring it, and worse, are actively spreading disinformation about it.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronav ... ses-2020-3
I’m shocked - shocked, I say - to hear that Russian news may not be completely honest
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Virgo
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Virgo » Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:03 pm

Malcolm wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:02 pm

They got it, but are ignoring it, and worse, are actively spreading disinformation about it.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronav ... ses-2020-3
That's pretty troubling.

Virgo

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Nemo
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Nemo » Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:10 pm

Malcolm wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:02 pm
PeterC wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:50 pm
Malcolm wrote:
Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:59 pm


Mexico is the next major disaster area. They are totally unprepared, and they also have a complete douche as a leader.
Russia may not have got the memo either
They got it, but are ignoring it, and worse, are actively spreading disinformation about it.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronav ... ses-2020-3
Russia had the best germ warfare guys in the world when I was serving. Did they know China was lying? 2008 financial crisis killed over 500k just from cancer alone in the OECD over 2 years. Now I wonder did they crunch the numbers? Is a fatality rate of 0.4% and herd immunity less fatalities than prolonged financial dislocation? They would know. There was supposed to be a huge kaboom but it's nowhere near where it should have been. I guess we will know next week when NY blows up.

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Virgo
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Virgo » Wed Mar 25, 2020 7:51 pm

An excellent video from Paul Beckwith:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UL8jDwRxz7M

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Virgo
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Virgo » Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:41 pm

live press briefing about to begin:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGowUgT0Fr4

Virgo

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