What are you doing about the coronavirus?

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KRB80
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by KRB80 » Mon May 11, 2020 9:05 pm

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-52613138

First reported coronavirus cluster back in Wuhan since end of lockdown.
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PeterC
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by PeterC » Tue May 12, 2020 4:59 am

Dan74 wrote:
Sun May 10, 2020 9:58 pm
Of course it could all die down due to UV, warm temperature, prayers and the Donald's preternatural powers of clairvoyance.
There's clearly a cluster of cases in the whitehouse itself. Multiple staff in direct contact with trump and pence have been taken ill. Prominent televangelists are being consulted on what the most efficacious prayers would be.

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Dan74
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Dan74 » Tue May 12, 2020 8:00 am

PeterC wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 4:59 am
Dan74 wrote:
Sun May 10, 2020 9:58 pm
Of course it could all die down due to UV, warm temperature, prayers and the Donald's preternatural powers of clairvoyance.
There's clearly a cluster of cases in the whitehouse itself. Multiple staff in direct contact with trump and pence have been taken ill. Prominent televangelists are being consulted on what the most efficacious prayers would be.
It appears we are witnessing the end of the Anglophone hegemony, with the PM and the Crown Prince sick in the UK after a botched initial response and similar in the US.

China, for all the nonsense that takes place at the top, performed incredibly well on the grass-roots level, from all I've read. Northern Europe has kept it under control too. And of course we know of the exemplary response in S. Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, HK and by the looks of it, NZ.

Neue Zürcher Zeitung (a Zürich daily), has published a graph showing current deaths compared to the expected band (in grey). Notice the early spikes - bad flu season of 2014-15, the European heat wave of 2015 and another bad flu season of 2017:
96588856_1994943707304357_9010691569958780928_o.jpg
96588856_1994943707304357_9010691569958780928_o.jpg (148.51 KiB) Viewed 671 times
This is perhaps the best indicator of how deadly it is. Although a tall spike may be followed by a steep fall as COVID19 "mops up" many of the people who were near death, especially at the hospitals and nursing homes.

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PeterC
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by PeterC » Tue May 12, 2020 9:12 am

Dan74 wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 8:00 am
PeterC wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 4:59 am
Dan74 wrote:
Sun May 10, 2020 9:58 pm
Of course it could all die down due to UV, warm temperature, prayers and the Donald's preternatural powers of clairvoyance.
There's clearly a cluster of cases in the whitehouse itself. Multiple staff in direct contact with trump and pence have been taken ill. Prominent televangelists are being consulted on what the most efficacious prayers would be.
It appears we are witnessing the end of the Anglophone hegemony, with the PM and the Crown Prince sick in the UK after a botched initial response and similar in the US.

China, for all the nonsense that takes place at the top, performed incredibly well on the grass-roots level, from all I've read. Northern Europe has kept it under control too. And of course we know of the exemplary response in S. Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, HK and by the looks of it, NZ.

Neue Zürcher Zeitung (a Zürich daily), has published a graph showing current deaths compared to the expected band (in grey). Notice the early spikes - bad flu season of 2014-15, the European heat wave of 2015 and another bad flu season of 2017:

This is perhaps the best indicator of how deadly it is. Although a tall spike may be followed by a steep fall as COVID19 "mops up" many of the people who were near death, especially at the hospitals and nursing homes.
A lot of it is simply explained by competent vs. not. Some governments were rational, listened to experts, and took prompt actions. Others acted late and saw significant casualties and incurred higher costs from shut-down. Then at the bottom of the pile you have places like Russia and the US. I'm not sure any country has handled this worse than the US, unfortunately. Some are simply ignoring it - Belarus, parts of Africa, etc. - and that is what it is, but I don't think anyone is engaging in the sort of outright dissembling and profiteering that the current US 'administration' is right now.

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tobes
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by tobes » Tue May 12, 2020 11:13 am

I'm a bit with Dan74 on this: I think the numbers are a really significant demonstration of the oft speculated decline of the Anglo-American age. They show a kind of political-social-economic dysfunction that has been there all along, growing, and is now kind of viscerally visible. The veneer of the 20th century superpower status was previously still kind of there in the collective imaginary, but it has basically evaporated.

When nut comes to crunch, it was dysfunction that allowed this to happen in both places; things - institutions, political processes etc - no longer work adequately. To some degree it is quite alarming to witness.

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Dan74
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Dan74 » Tue May 12, 2020 12:14 pm

tobes wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 11:13 am
I'm a bit with Dan74 on this: I think the numbers are a really significant demonstration of the oft speculated decline of the Anglo-American age. They show a kind of political-social-economic dysfunction that has been there all along, growing, and is now kind of viscerally visible. The veneer of the 20th century superpower status was previously still kind of there in the collective imaginary, but it has basically evaporated.

When nut comes to crunch, it was dysfunction that allowed this to happen in both places; things - institutions, political processes etc - no longer work adequately. To some degree it is quite alarming to witness.
At the very least it terms of political leadership, this is clearly the case.

One can still argue that the USA (and the rest of the Anglosphere) is mighty when it comes to economy, innovation and culture (putting aside the copious amount of trash it produces). All this in spite of, not thanks to, its political leadership.

How important is the Federal Government, compared to the States and the city mayors?

Here in Switzerland, the system is relatively robust and the composition of the Federal Council does not have such a huge effect I think. We were hoping for the Greens to get in and even though (together with Green Liberals) they polled 21% of the vote, they did not get a single seat on the 7-seat council, which is disappointing.

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Nemo
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Nemo » Tue May 12, 2020 3:18 pm

If we are talking about failures then the possibility this was leaked from a lab in China doing gain of function experiments funded by America because it was too dangerous to do at home should be seriously considered. There is no proof it came from a seafood market near the Wuhan Institute of Virology in mid January and the CCP has been proven to have lied repeatedly to the point they have zero credibility. The circumstantial evidence for a leak is becoming quite significant. Additionally the very well documented 6 days that China pretended the disease was not transmissible human to human while scouring the globe for medical supplies is unforgivable. 100 tonnes from Canada on top of the additional 16 tonnes they begged for putting our health care workers and those I love at serious risk. I can prove all these allegations.

Lets start with covering up the outbreak while buying up global supplies of PPE.


The argument for a lab leak starts with the previous 2 coronavirus leaks that ended with convictions and jail time. And a third in Guandong where the CCP covered up the outbreak. So if past behavior predicts future behavior the most likely scenario is they did what they did before.
https://www.the-scientist.com/news-anal ... fStno9Topg

But don't worry America takes some blame too for funding gain of function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology funded by none other than Dr Fauci.
https://www.newsweek.com/dr-fauci-backe ... ch-1500741

That polybasic furin cleavage site combined with the pangolin strain and Shi Zhengli having the only comparable virus and only reporting it Jan 20th and it still being from a seafood market looks about as likely as finding a winning lotto ticket in the trash. Sure, it's possible but it just not likely.


And please explain how the virus that came from a seafood market in January made it to France to infect people in early to mid December. With frozen samples from those in late stage Covid pneumonia on December 27th. China clearly lied about the timeline. Then destroyed virus samples on Jan 3, arrested and killed whistle blowers and prevented any international access or investigation. Threatening countries who asked questions. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-5 ... k2kWtScJ2s

The likeliest scenario is a lab had a lapse in discipline in October. I worked in BSL 4 labs. They are super annoying. No phones or coffee in restricted areas, etc. If you look at cell phone data the WIV was getting lax and in early October had an incident. This is not illegal or even surprising. The problem is not the accident. It's all the illegal behavior afterwards and the bungling of containment like the previous incidents that unfolded in almost exactly the same way. China is liable for all the damages and I think that is just a fact.
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents ... avkfN8FIcU

I would be happy to be convinced otherwise but please don't bring up Peter Daszak or that Nature article. Peter wrote papers with Shi Zhengli and shared funding with her. He has too many conflicts of interest to be credible. Here they are both named in the same paper. https://jvi.asm.org/content/90/14/6573.short

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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Norwegian » Tue May 12, 2020 3:47 pm

Fake news conspiracy paranoia.
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The Guru is the Sangha too,
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Nemo
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Nemo » Tue May 12, 2020 3:54 pm

Norwegian wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 3:47 pm
Fake news conspiracy paranoia.
CCP is a proven liar. Care to back up your seafood market in January claim with facts?

Oh, you are just being sarcastic. Sorry.

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justsit
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by justsit » Tue May 12, 2020 4:21 pm

Dan74 wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 12:14 pm
tobes wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 11:13 am
I'm a bit with Dan74 on this: I think the numbers are a really significant demonstration of the oft speculated decline of the Anglo-American age. They show a kind of political-social-economic dysfunction that has been there all along, growing, and is now kind of viscerally visible. The veneer of the 20th century superpower status was previously still kind of there in the collective imaginary, but it has basically evaporated.

When nut comes to crunch, it was dysfunction that allowed this to happen in both places; things - institutions, political processes etc - no longer work adequately. To some degree it is quite alarming to witness.
At the very least it terms of political leadership, this is clearly the case.

One can still argue that the USA (and the rest of the Anglosphere) is mighty when it comes to economy, innovation and culture (putting aside the copious amount of trash it produces). All this in spite of, not thanks to, its political leadership.
...
Good article on this subject today in The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... rus-crisis

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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Malcolm » Tue May 12, 2020 4:44 pm

Nemo wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 3:18 pm
If we are talking about failures then the possibility this was leaked from a lab in China doing gain of function experiments funded by America because it was too dangerous to do at home should be seriously considered. There is no proof it came from a seafood market near the Wuhan Institute of Virology in mid January and the CCP has been proven to have lied repeatedly to the point they have zero credibility. The circumstantial evidence for a leak is becoming quite significant.
Whatever the case may be, the horses have already left the barn.

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Nemo
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Nemo » Tue May 12, 2020 5:04 pm

Malcolm wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 4:44 pm
Nemo wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 3:18 pm
If we are talking about failures then the possibility this was leaked from a lab in China doing gain of function experiments funded by America because it was too dangerous to do at home should be seriously considered. There is no proof it came from a seafood market near the Wuhan Institute of Virology in mid January and the CCP has been proven to have lied repeatedly to the point they have zero credibility. The circumstantial evidence for a leak is becoming quite significant.
Whatever the case may be, the horses have already left the barn.
It's annoying because the lying muddied the data for 2 months. If China was forthright it could probably have been contained. At this point it makes very little difference. CFR and R0 estimates are within parameters that meaningful decisions can be made now. But it does indicate gross negligence and even criminal negligence. That means civil liability. Once the cover up started it ceased to be an accident. I don't think letting it slide is a wise long term decision. This is not the first time China had a negligent lab leak. Not that wet markets are not a threat to human life. They need to fix both or be isolated indefinitely.

We can't fix a problem if we pretend it never happened. Maybe next time it will be worse if we don't. This accident and bungling screwed up the lives of only 7.5 BILLION humans and has already killed 290,000 and this is just the warm up. Kind of important we don't do it again.

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Kim O'Hara
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Kim O'Hara » Tue May 12, 2020 11:04 pm

Dan74 wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 8:00 am

Neue Zürcher Zeitung (a Zürich daily), has published a graph showing current deaths compared to the expected band (in grey). Notice the early spikes - bad flu season of 2014-15, the European heat wave of 2015 and another bad flu season of 2017:
...
This is perhaps the best indicator of how deadly it is. Although a tall spike may be followed by a steep fall as COVID19 "mops up" many of the people who were near death, especially at the hospitals and nursing homes.
There's a similar but slightly clearer and more detailed chart in this article - https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f ... 5839e06441 - along with others.

:coffee:
Kim

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tobes
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by tobes » Wed May 13, 2020 12:31 am

Dan74 wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 12:14 pm
tobes wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 11:13 am
I'm a bit with Dan74 on this: I think the numbers are a really significant demonstration of the oft speculated decline of the Anglo-American age. They show a kind of political-social-economic dysfunction that has been there all along, growing, and is now kind of viscerally visible. The veneer of the 20th century superpower status was previously still kind of there in the collective imaginary, but it has basically evaporated.

When nut comes to crunch, it was dysfunction that allowed this to happen in both places; things - institutions, political processes etc - no longer work adequately. To some degree it is quite alarming to witness.
At the very least it terms of political leadership, this is clearly the case.

One can still argue that the USA (and the rest of the Anglosphere) is mighty when it comes to economy, innovation and culture (putting aside the copious amount of trash it produces). All this in spite of, not thanks to, its political leadership.

How important is the Federal Government, compared to the States and the city mayors?

Here in Switzerland, the system is relatively robust and the composition of the Federal Council does not have such a huge effect I think. We were hoping for the Greens to get in and even though (together with Green Liberals) they polled 21% of the vote, they did not get a single seat on the 7-seat council, which is disappointing.
I suppose what I'm really saying is that it is not just about political leadership; it is about systemic decline in key areas over a reasonably long period of time. In this respect, the political fragmentation is really just a symptom - and effect of this deeper cause. Populism only works when people are already experiencing declining living standards, infrastructure, work life etc.

The UK used to lead the world in education and health. It simply doesn't any more. The NHS has been run into the ground, likewise academic institutions, likewise infrastructure.

There have been many canaries in the coal mine. They all died, so we all knew there was an issue. Now the miners themselves are dying.....

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Nemo
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Nemo » Wed May 13, 2020 6:12 am

tobes wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 12:31 am
Dan74 wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 12:14 pm
tobes wrote:
Tue May 12, 2020 11:13 am
I'm a bit with Dan74 on this: I think the numbers are a really significant demonstration of the oft speculated decline of the Anglo-American age. They show a kind of political-social-economic dysfunction that has been there all along, growing, and is now kind of viscerally visible. The veneer of the 20th century superpower status was previously still kind of there in the collective imaginary, but it has basically evaporated.

When nut comes to crunch, it was dysfunction that allowed this to happen in both places; things - institutions, political processes etc - no longer work adequately. To some degree it is quite alarming to witness.
At the very least it terms of political leadership, this is clearly the case.

One can still argue that the USA (and the rest of the Anglosphere) is mighty when it comes to economy, innovation and culture (putting aside the copious amount of trash it produces). All this in spite of, not thanks to, its political leadership.

How important is the Federal Government, compared to the States and the city mayors?

Here in Switzerland, the system is relatively robust and the composition of the Federal Council does not have such a huge effect I think. We were hoping for the Greens to get in and even though (together with Green Liberals) they polled 21% of the vote, they did not get a single seat on the 7-seat council, which is disappointing.
I suppose what I'm really saying is that it is not just about political leadership; it is about systemic decline in key areas over a reasonably long period of time. In this respect, the political fragmentation is really just a symptom - and effect of this deeper cause. Populism only works when people are already experiencing declining living standards, infrastructure, work life etc.

The UK used to lead the world in education and health. It simply doesn't any more. The NHS has been run into the ground, likewise academic institutions, likewise infrastructure.

There have been many canaries in the coal mine. They all died, so we all knew there was an issue. Now the miners themselves are dying.....
NZ, Aus and Canada seem to have done OK. Neoliberalism is the main culprit and everything here is profoundly hampered by a lack of manufacturing infrastructure. Canada could end lockdown today IF we had masks. 22% of our infections are nosocomial and 11% of infected are health care workers. Don't underestimate masks and the anglosphere don't have the logistical capacity to make them. There is a lot more to a strong economy than access to credit.

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tobes
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by tobes » Wed May 13, 2020 8:57 am

I agree Nemo - neoliberalism is the cause. Interestingly, Australia, under a very conservative govt, basically jettisoned the whole neoliberal caper in one stroke. Doubled unemployment benefits and....well......actually started governing. Haven't seen this since the 90's.

I'm sure it will return though.

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Sirius
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Sirius » Wed May 13, 2020 5:58 pm

Not going out much, staying at home is safest to me :)

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Nemo
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Nemo » Thu May 14, 2020 3:57 am

tobes wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 8:57 am
I agree Nemo - neoliberalism is the cause. Interestingly, Australia, under a very conservative govt, basically jettisoned the whole neoliberal caper in one stroke. Doubled unemployment benefits and....well......actually started governing. Haven't seen this since the 90's.

I'm sure it will return though.
Ever the optimist. I'm not so sure. The last recessions were financial hiccups that trickled down to main street. Often a financial hiccup in a single country. This time main street has been decimated in every country on earth. This has never happened before. Generally it takes 6 to 18 months for the full extent of the damage to manifest. Many countries are over 20% unemployment today. In a year that could be 30%. There are no precedents or models for this kind of collapse. It's either socialism or barbarism and many neoliberals are already choosing socialism.

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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Malcolm » Thu May 14, 2020 4:21 am

Nemo wrote:
Thu May 14, 2020 3:57 am
tobes wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 8:57 am
I agree Nemo - neoliberalism is the cause. Interestingly, Australia, under a very conservative govt, basically jettisoned the whole neoliberal caper in one stroke. Doubled unemployment benefits and....well......actually started governing. Haven't seen this since the 90's.

I'm sure it will return though.
Ever the optimist. I'm not so sure. The last recessions were financial hiccups that trickled down to main street. Often a financial hiccup in a single country. This time main street has been decimated in every country on earth. This has never happened before. Generally it takes 6 to 18 months for the full extent of the damage to manifest. Many countries are over 20% unemployment today. In a year that could be 30%. There are no precedents or models for this kind of collapse. It's either socialism or barbarism and many neoliberals are already choosing socialism.
The only sensible choice.

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Dan74
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Re: What are you doing about the coronavirus?

Post by Dan74 » Thu May 14, 2020 6:51 am

tobes wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 8:57 am
I agree Nemo - neoliberalism is the cause. Interestingly, Australia, under a very conservative govt, basically jettisoned the whole neoliberal caper in one stroke. Doubled unemployment benefits and....well......actually started governing. Haven't seen this since the 90's.

I'm sure it will return though.
Wasn't neoliberalism the cure for the ills of regulation? Both in Australia and NZ, Labor governments came in and "modernised" the economy and the financial system, bringing in deregulation and globalised trade, after what was a period of increasing economic stagnation and debt?

Now the cure has become the disease, but what is the new cure? Back to regulation??

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