Potential for War in Korea: Causes and Conditions

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DGA
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Potential for War in Korea: Causes and Conditions

Post by DGA » Sun Feb 04, 2018 9:40 pm

You may be familiar with the proposal made within the Trump administration for a "bloody nose" strategy viz. North Korea. The idea is for US forces to make limited military strikes on North Korean targets with the intention of weakening and embarrassing the Kim regime, but in such a way as to somehow avoid a reprisal. That's impossible, by the way. More on that below.

More urgently, consider the implicit motivation for such an action:
White House National Security Council senior director for Asian affairs Matthew Pottinger reportedly said in a recent closed-door meeting with US experts on Korean Peninsula issues that a limited strike on the North might help in the midterm elections.
http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_ ... ign=buffer

It's a wag-the-dog, in other words. And it's a repulsive strategic consideration: to wage war with the intention of improving one's potential margin in Congress.

here are some analyses explaining why the "bloody nose" idea is destined to failure and highly dangerous to global security.

https://www.theatlantic.com/internation ... ea/551924/

https://www.axios.com/why-a-bloody-nose ... 0605f.html

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Malcolm
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Re: Potential for War in Korea: Causes and Conditions

Post by Malcolm » Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:21 pm

DGA wrote:
Sun Feb 04, 2018 9:40 pm
You may be familiar with the proposal made within the Trump administration for a "bloody nose" strategy viz. North Korea. The idea is for US forces to make limited military strikes on North Korean targets with the intention of weakening and embarrassing the Kim regime, but in such a way as to somehow avoid a reprisal. That's impossible, by the way. More on that below.

More urgently, consider the implicit motivation for such an action:
White House National Security Council senior director for Asian affairs Matthew Pottinger reportedly said in a recent closed-door meeting with US experts on Korean Peninsula issues that a limited strike on the North might help in the midterm elections.
http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_ ... ign=buffer

It's a wag-the-dog, in other words. And it's a repulsive strategic consideration: to wage war with the intention of improving one's potential margin in Congress.

here are some analyses explaining why the "bloody nose" idea is destined to failure and highly dangerous to global security.

https://www.theatlantic.com/internation ... ea/551924/

https://www.axios.com/why-a-bloody-nose ... 0605f.html
The use of the poison of atomic weapons that have the power to destroy in a single second the presence of the Buddha’s teachings and the lives of sentient beings on this great earth of ours, and every bit of goodness in the universe and its inhabitants, will destroy the human race. The time when these extremely lethal weapons never seen before will be used is not far off—signs and indications are growing each day. So, moved irrepressibly by insupportable sadness and intense fear, we must call out like children wailing for their mothers to the one who can stop this: Orgyen Padma.

http://www.lotsawahouse.org/tibetan-mas ... ncantation
Buddhahood in This Life
འ༔ ཨ༔ ཧ༔ ཤ༔ ས༔ མ༔


[A]nything at all that is well spoken is the word of the Buddha.

-- Ārya-adhyāśaya-sañcodana-nāma-mahāyāna-sūtra

The different sūtras in accord with the emptiness
taught by the Sugata are definitive in meaning;
One can understand that all of those Dharmas in
which a sentient being, individual, or person are taught are provisional in meaning.

-- Samadhirāja Sūtra

marting
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Re: Potential for War in Korea: Causes and Conditions

Post by marting » Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:33 pm

DGA wrote:
Sun Feb 04, 2018 9:40 pm
It's a wag-the-dog, in other words. And it's a repulsive strategic consideration: to wage war with the intention of improving one's potential margin in Congress.
I don't think this will be a factor in the decision.

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Malcolm
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Re: Potential for War in Korea: Causes and Conditions

Post by Malcolm » Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:39 pm

marting wrote:
Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:33 pm
DGA wrote:
Sun Feb 04, 2018 9:40 pm
It's a wag-the-dog, in other words. And it's a repulsive strategic consideration: to wage war with the intention of improving one's potential margin in Congress.
I don't think this will be a factor in the decision.
I think this is the only factor in the decision. If the US wanted to solve this problem, just as in Cuba, they could have implemented something like a Marshall plan to build up the economy of NK. Instead we are starving them. As the Buddha said:
Thus from goods not being bestowed on the destitute, poverty... stealing... violence... murder... lying... evil-speaking... immorality grew rife.
Theft and killing lead to false speech, jealousy, adultery, incest and perverted lust...
We should not expect positive outcomes from crippling sanctions. It did not work in Iraq; it did not work with Iran; and it will not work with North Korea. It just causes these economies to focus all their GDP on their militaries at the expense of civilians. Arguably, Russian interference in our political process is also a result of sanctions.
Buddhahood in This Life
འ༔ ཨ༔ ཧ༔ ཤ༔ ས༔ མ༔


[A]nything at all that is well spoken is the word of the Buddha.

-- Ārya-adhyāśaya-sañcodana-nāma-mahāyāna-sūtra

The different sūtras in accord with the emptiness
taught by the Sugata are definitive in meaning;
One can understand that all of those Dharmas in
which a sentient being, individual, or person are taught are provisional in meaning.

-- Samadhirāja Sūtra

marting
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Re: Potential for War in Korea: Causes and Conditions

Post by marting » Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:56 pm

Malcolm wrote:
Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:39 pm
If the US wanted to solve this problem, just as in Cuba, they could have implemented something like a Marshall plan to build up the economy of NK.
Right...we naively thought this would work with China. And to consider Cuba has been targeting U.S. diplomats leaving a number of them permanently deaf. Same old, same old there. In any case I love reading backseat policy making. :applause:
Arguably, Russian interference in our political process is also a result of sanctions.
Do you put on your clothes backwards too? :jumping:

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Malcolm
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Re: Potential for War in Korea: Causes and Conditions

Post by Malcolm » Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:06 pm

marting wrote:
Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:56 pm
Malcolm wrote:
Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:39 pm
If the US wanted to solve this problem, just as in Cuba, they could have implemented something like a Marshall plan to build up the economy of NK.
Right...we naively thought this would work with China. And to consider Cuba has been targeting U.S. diplomats leaving a number of them permanently deaf. Same old, same old there. In any case I love reading backseat policy making. :applause:
Ummm, we have tortured Cuba since the revolution. We bombed NK into the f*&^ing stone age. You wonder why they hate us.

With respect to China and Russia, what do you suggest? That we keep them economically isolated? If so, our military budget, rather than being half of what we now spend, would be 90 percent.

The kinds of foreign policies we pursued in the 1950's and 1960's were not economically feasible.

There is only one way to create democratic countries: step one, lift them up economically; step two; encourage them to develop democratic institutions; step three, encourage them to liberalize their economies.

Neither China nor Russia have liberal economies, and in the end, this is what will bring about their downfall.

M
Buddhahood in This Life
འ༔ ཨ༔ ཧ༔ ཤ༔ ས༔ མ༔


[A]nything at all that is well spoken is the word of the Buddha.

-- Ārya-adhyāśaya-sañcodana-nāma-mahāyāna-sūtra

The different sūtras in accord with the emptiness
taught by the Sugata are definitive in meaning;
One can understand that all of those Dharmas in
which a sentient being, individual, or person are taught are provisional in meaning.

-- Samadhirāja Sūtra

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kirtu
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Re: Potential for War in Korea: Causes and Conditions

Post by kirtu » Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:07 pm

Malcolm wrote:
Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:39 pm
marting wrote:
Sun Feb 04, 2018 10:33 pm
DGA wrote:
Sun Feb 04, 2018 9:40 pm
It's a wag-the-dog, in other words. And it's a repulsive strategic consideration: to wage war with the intention of improving one's potential margin in Congress.
I don't think this will be a factor in the decision.
I think this is the only factor in the decision. If the US wanted to solve this problem, just as in Cuba, they could have implemented something like a Marshall plan to build up the economy of NK. Instead we are starving them. As the Buddha said:
Thus from goods not being bestowed on the destitute, poverty... stealing... violence... murder... lying... evil-speaking... immorality grew rife.
Theft and killing lead to false speech, jealousy, adultery, incest and perverted lust...
We should not expect positive outcomes from crippling sanctions. It did not work in Iraq; it did not work with Iran; and it will not work with North Korea. It just causes these economies to focus all their GDP on their militaries at the expense of civilians. Arguably, Russian interference in our political process is also a result of sanctions.
Russian interference is not attributable to sactions (although not understanding Russian history is a major factor).

The United States sees all problems in aggressive military tetms (a direct consequence of being an authoritarian culture). And it also doesn't understand Korean history. On top of that we have real lunatics making decisions both in Washington and Pyongyang.
Kirt's Tibetan Translation Notes

"Even if you practice only for an hour a day with faith and inspiration, good qualities will steadily increase. Regular practice makes it easy to transform your mind. From seeing only relative truth, you will eventually reach a profound certainty in the meaning of absolute truth."
Kyabje Dilgo Khyentse Rinpoche.

"Only you can make your mind beautiful."
HH Chetsang Rinpoche

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Malcolm
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Re: Potential for War in Korea: Causes and Conditions

Post by Malcolm » Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:11 pm

kirtu wrote:
Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:07 pm
On top of that we have real lunatics making decisions both in Washington and Pyongyang.
We don't agree on much when it comes to the US, but we agree on this.
Buddhahood in This Life
འ༔ ཨ༔ ཧ༔ ཤ༔ ས༔ མ༔


[A]nything at all that is well spoken is the word of the Buddha.

-- Ārya-adhyāśaya-sañcodana-nāma-mahāyāna-sūtra

The different sūtras in accord with the emptiness
taught by the Sugata are definitive in meaning;
One can understand that all of those Dharmas in
which a sentient being, individual, or person are taught are provisional in meaning.

-- Samadhirāja Sūtra

marting
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Re: Potential for War in Korea: Causes and Conditions

Post by marting » Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:21 pm

Malcolm, we're talking about China, one of the most prosperous if not the most prosperous economy in the world and in the last few years has quickly and decisively consolidated power into the hands of a life-long dictator. You still think building up a country's economy will solve these problems?

Maybe I need some more coffee...

:coffee:

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Malcolm
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Re: Potential for War in Korea: Causes and Conditions

Post by Malcolm » Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:23 pm

marting wrote:
Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:21 pm
Malcolm, we're talking about China, one of the most prosperous if not the most prosperous economy in the world and in the last few years has quickly and decisively consolidated power into the hands of a life-long dictator. You still think building up a country's economy will solve these problems?

Maybe I need some more coffee...

:coffee:
China is not as stable as you think. There is a massive turf war happening. What we see on the outside is not a reflection of what is going in inside.

However, Trump's trade policies with respect to China, as well as the rest of our trade partners are nothing short of absurd and foolish.
Last edited by Malcolm on Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Buddhahood in This Life
འ༔ ཨ༔ ཧ༔ ཤ༔ ས༔ མ༔


[A]nything at all that is well spoken is the word of the Buddha.

-- Ārya-adhyāśaya-sañcodana-nāma-mahāyāna-sūtra

The different sūtras in accord with the emptiness
taught by the Sugata are definitive in meaning;
One can understand that all of those Dharmas in
which a sentient being, individual, or person are taught are provisional in meaning.

-- Samadhirāja Sūtra

marting
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Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2017 3:37 am

Re: Potential for War in Korea: Causes and Conditions

Post by marting » Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:24 pm

Malcolm wrote:
Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:23 pm
China is not as stable as you think.
I'm not sure about your assessment.

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Malcolm
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Re: Potential for War in Korea: Causes and Conditions

Post by Malcolm » Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:25 pm

marting wrote:
Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:24 pm
Malcolm wrote:
Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:23 pm
China is not as stable as you think.
I'm not sure about your assessment.
No country with 50 major ethnic groups that are under constant harassment can be considered stable.
Last edited by Malcolm on Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:32 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Buddhahood in This Life
འ༔ ཨ༔ ཧ༔ ཤ༔ ས༔ མ༔


[A]nything at all that is well spoken is the word of the Buddha.

-- Ārya-adhyāśaya-sañcodana-nāma-mahāyāna-sūtra

The different sūtras in accord with the emptiness
taught by the Sugata are definitive in meaning;
One can understand that all of those Dharmas in
which a sentient being, individual, or person are taught are provisional in meaning.

-- Samadhirāja Sūtra

MiphamFan
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Re: Potential for War in Korea: Causes and Conditions

Post by MiphamFan » Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:26 pm

Malcolm is right actually.

Do you think Xi Jinping managed to carry out his anti-corruption measures without ruffling feathers? Bo Xilai is only the most prominent official he cracked down on.

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TharpaChodron
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Re: Potential for War in Korea: Causes and Conditions

Post by TharpaChodron » Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:33 pm

I don't think it will ever happen. If anything, this seems more like political posturing, a la Reagan era "Star Wars." Smoke and mirrors. Both sides are poking a proverbial hornets nest and like Cuba, Russia, China...too much at stake to instigate an huge imbalance in global politics. The US works with China too much to flex on their little watch dog.

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Malcolm
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Re: Potential for War in Korea: Causes and Conditions

Post by Malcolm » Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:33 pm

MiphamFan wrote:
Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:26 pm
Malcolm is right actually.

Do you think Xi Jinping managed to carry out his anti-corruption measures without ruffling feathers? Bo Xilai is only the most prominent official he cracked down on.
From what I understand, the anti-corruption charges, while addressing real issues, are a cover for a turf war between four major political factions in China.
Buddhahood in This Life
འ༔ ཨ༔ ཧ༔ ཤ༔ ས༔ མ༔


[A]nything at all that is well spoken is the word of the Buddha.

-- Ārya-adhyāśaya-sañcodana-nāma-mahāyāna-sūtra

The different sūtras in accord with the emptiness
taught by the Sugata are definitive in meaning;
One can understand that all of those Dharmas in
which a sentient being, individual, or person are taught are provisional in meaning.

-- Samadhirāja Sūtra

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Malcolm
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Re: Potential for War in Korea: Causes and Conditions

Post by Malcolm » Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:34 pm

TharpaChodron wrote:
Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:33 pm
I don't think it will ever happen. If anything, this seems more like political posturing, a la Reagan era "Star Wars." Smoke and mirrors. Both sides are poking a proverbial hornets nest and like Cuba, Russia, China...too much at stake to instigate an huge imbalance in global politics. The US works with China too much to flex on their little watch dog.
Trump is an aggressive fool, and he wants to start a nuclear war with someone. You don't recall that one of his first questions "to the generals" was "why can't we use them?"

I only hope to Buddha that Mattis or someone tackles the f&^%ing guy when he tries to press the button.
Last edited by Malcolm on Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Buddhahood in This Life
འ༔ ཨ༔ ཧ༔ ཤ༔ ས༔ མ༔


[A]nything at all that is well spoken is the word of the Buddha.

-- Ārya-adhyāśaya-sañcodana-nāma-mahāyāna-sūtra

The different sūtras in accord with the emptiness
taught by the Sugata are definitive in meaning;
One can understand that all of those Dharmas in
which a sentient being, individual, or person are taught are provisional in meaning.

-- Samadhirāja Sūtra

MiphamFan
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Re: Potential for War in Korea: Causes and Conditions

Post by MiphamFan » Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:35 pm

Malcolm wrote:
Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:33 pm
MiphamFan wrote:
Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:26 pm
Malcolm is right actually.

Do you think Xi Jinping managed to carry out his anti-corruption measures without ruffling feathers? Bo Xilai is only the most prominent official he cracked down on.
From what I understand, the anti-corruption charges, while addressing real issues, are a cover for a turf war between four major political factions in China.
Yeah, of course.

Another divide within China is between the old school Marxists and the liberals in power. Liberals in the (original) economic sense.

China is yuuuuuge, it is silly to assume it is united.

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Malcolm
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Re: Potential for War in Korea: Causes and Conditions

Post by Malcolm » Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:37 pm

MiphamFan wrote:
Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:35 pm
Malcolm wrote:
Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:33 pm
MiphamFan wrote:
Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:26 pm
Malcolm is right actually.

Do you think Xi Jinping managed to carry out his anti-corruption measures without ruffling feathers? Bo Xilai is only the most prominent official he cracked down on.
From what I understand, the anti-corruption charges, while addressing real issues, are a cover for a turf war between four major political factions in China.
Yeah, of course.

Another divide within China is between the old school Marxists and the liberals in power. Liberals in the (original) economic sense.

China is yuuuuuge, it is silly to assume it is united.
Yes, liberalizing the economy is dangerous to entrenched power -- this is why European monarchs resisted it for so long.
Buddhahood in This Life
འ༔ ཨ༔ ཧ༔ ཤ༔ ས༔ མ༔


[A]nything at all that is well spoken is the word of the Buddha.

-- Ārya-adhyāśaya-sañcodana-nāma-mahāyāna-sūtra

The different sūtras in accord with the emptiness
taught by the Sugata are definitive in meaning;
One can understand that all of those Dharmas in
which a sentient being, individual, or person are taught are provisional in meaning.

-- Samadhirāja Sūtra

MiphamFan
Posts: 961
Joined: Thu Jun 18, 2015 5:46 am

Re: Potential for War in Korea: Causes and Conditions

Post by MiphamFan » Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:41 pm

The Marxists who are resisting it, among others, are not in power though. For example, Bo Xilai, who was proscribed, used Marxist populist rhetoric in his rise to power.

Of course Chinese Marxism took on its own idiosyncrasies and isn't really the same as what developed in the West.

marting
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Re: Potential for War in Korea: Causes and Conditions

Post by marting » Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:46 pm

Malcolm wrote:Trump is an aggressive fool, and he wants to start a nuclear war with someone.
No.

Enabled by China, North Korea is still a bully with impunity
Meanwhile, President Trump has broken from recent tradition by not pandering, yet he is criticized as the one inciting tensions. Enabler China will cheer on the regime at its 70th anniversary commemoration in September. Bullies don’t call out bullies; they need each other.
Yes.

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