Potential for War in Korea: Causes and Conditions

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Minobu
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Re: Potential for War in Korea: Causes and Conditions

Post by Minobu » Fri Feb 09, 2018 7:13 pm

Malcolm wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 7:00 pm
Minobu wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 6:05 pm
Malcolm wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 3:15 am


I am sorry, but I think you have zero understanding of the real situation with respect to NK. In the very possible eventuality that hostilities do breakout we’ll be screwed, all of us.
i fear you are right...but the we? i think it is a small group of militarists and trump .
Why is SK shaking hands with Kim's sister in front of the world.

Are they, the Two koreas, using the whole Olympic peace opening ceremony and joined team to put pressure to quash this intended war by the USA's administration as of late.

it certainly opposing views being put out ..and the Korea's seem to have very little say in what happens...

NK asked for oil to get a ferry back home...SK said it had to ask permission from USA.

the most precarious set of politics ever...


also i think the stock market is a real sign of what could happen, people are getting their money out slowly while making gains computer generated..for each rise of 300 you get a 1000 dump..it will go to 19,000 and hang there....gold will be at an all time high...people are heading for the hills...
What I had in mind was fallout and millions of dead Koreans. The stockmarket is hardly a consideration in the event true hostilities breakout.
ahh you missed my point and question ..

And more aptly,i was not talking about the stock market after but before ...like now and people fleeing it for security...
meh..

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Nemo
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Re: Potential for War in Korea: Causes and Conditions

Post by Nemo » Fri Feb 09, 2018 10:04 pm

There is also the possibility that this is a ruse. I read the letters Fidel would send US presidents years ago. I'll paraphrase, "Hey Ron, Good luck in the coming election primaries. I will not take any sabre rattling against Cuba seriously. I hope we can talk again soon." I did not have access to the replies, but always remember what you are being fed in the media is never the whole story. If they can kiss the Saudi's asses why not a deal with the Kims? This is of course a best case scenario.

More likely after NK playing both sides in the 90's the US wants it's pound of flesh. If war does break out this may be the one that breaks US hegemony. If the world believes America is fading Trump will overplay his hand and you will get a Suez Crisis. You won't be missed.

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Tlalok
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Re: Potential for War in Korea: Causes and Conditions

Post by Tlalok » Fri Feb 09, 2018 11:29 pm

You do understand we are mobilizing for a war there?
The US currently has 4 of its carriers in home-port and another 2 undergoing maintenance (the George Washington's projected ready date being 2021 lol). Of the 4 carriers at sea, 2 are in home waters. Only CVN-70 with the Carl Vinson would be able to participate in any fighting in the peninsula. To put that fact in context, in 2003 the US deployed six Carrier Strike Groups to the gulf to topple Iraq, which did not have a functioning airforce at the time.

Naturally we don't know where the SSBN's are, but the lack of more carrier groups around the Korean peninsula indicates that they're not seriously expecting fighting in the immediate future. If the US is seriously gearing up for a nuclear exchange with North Korea they are doing it terribly.

This is the problem with Trump's sabre rattling, it is so clearly just a bluff. He obviously doesn't want to start anything so he's just ratcheting up the tension with no reason. The risk of course is that Trump decides to unilaterally do something stupid before the US has had time to properly mobilize, giving the north time to level Seoul and Tokyo and kill tens of millions of people.

McMaster's nonsensical "bloody-nose attack" isn't going to work anyway, but without multiple CSGs in theatre, where is it going to come from? I hope to god they have a better plan than a few SSBNs dumping a couple of dozen cruise missiles all over a massive country that is basically one giant mountain fortress.

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Minobu
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Re: Potential for War in Korea: Causes and Conditions

Post by Minobu » Sat Feb 10, 2018 6:04 pm

Malcolm wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 7:00 pm
Minobu wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 6:05 pm
Malcolm wrote:
Wed Feb 07, 2018 3:15 am


I am sorry, but I think you have zero understanding of the real situation with respect to NK. In the very possible eventuality that hostilities do breakout we’ll be screwed, all of us.
i fear you are right...but the we? i think it is a small group of militarists and trump .
Why is SK shaking hands with Kim's sister in front of the world.

Are they, the Two koreas, using the whole Olympic peace opening ceremony and joined team to put pressure to quash this intended war by the USA's administration as of late.

it certainly opposing views being put out ..and the Korea's seem to have very little say in what happens...

NK asked for oil to get a ferry back home...SK said it had to ask permission from USA.

the most precarious set of politics ever...


also i think the stock market is a real sign of what could happen, people are getting their money out slowly while making gains computer generated..for each rise of 300 you get a 1000 dump..it will go to 19,000 and hang there....gold will be at an all time high...people are heading for the hills...
What I had in mind was fallout and millions of dead Koreans. The stockmarket is hardly a consideration in the event true hostilities breakout.
i understand all that...but i was trying to convey that there is a run for the hills happening in the world stock markets...they watch what is happening with these children politicians in SK olympics and fear rushes to the fore.

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Re: Potential for War in Korea: Causes and Conditions

Post by DGA » Sat Feb 10, 2018 9:08 pm

Nemo wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 10:04 pm
There is also the possibility that this is a ruse. I read the letters Fidel would send US presidents years ago. I'll paraphrase, "Hey Ron, Good luck in the coming election primaries. I will not take any sabre rattling against Cuba seriously. I hope we can talk again soon." I did not have access to the replies, but always remember what you are being fed in the media is never the whole story. If they can kiss the Saudi's asses why not a deal with the Kims? This is of course a best case scenario.

More likely after NK playing both sides in the 90's the US wants it's pound of flesh. If war does break out this may be the one that breaks US hegemony. If the world believes America is fading Trump will overplay his hand and you will get a Suez Crisis.
I think this is accurate.
You won't be missed.
US foreign policy since maybe Monroe has been a train wreck. With that said, suppose US hegemony fails. Would you prefer Chinese hegemony?

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Re: Potential for War in Korea: Causes and Conditions

Post by DGA » Sat Feb 10, 2018 9:12 pm

Tlalok wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 11:29 pm
You do understand we are mobilizing for a war there?
The US currently has 4 of its carriers in home-port and another 2 undergoing maintenance (the George Washington's projected ready date being 2021 lol). Of the 4 carriers at sea, 2 are in home waters. Only CVN-70 with the Carl Vinson would be able to participate in any fighting in the peninsula. To put that fact in context, in 2003 the US deployed six Carrier Strike Groups to the gulf to topple Iraq, which did not have a functioning airforce at the time.

Naturally we don't know where the SSBN's are, but the lack of more carrier groups around the Korean peninsula indicates that they're not seriously expecting fighting in the immediate future. If the US is seriously gearing up for a nuclear exchange with North Korea they are doing it terribly.

This is the problem with Trump's sabre rattling, it is so clearly just a bluff. He obviously doesn't want to start anything so he's just ratcheting up the tension with no reason. The risk of course is that Trump decides to unilaterally do something stupid before the US has had time to properly mobilize, giving the north time to level Seoul and Tokyo and kill tens of millions of people.

McMaster's nonsensical "bloody-nose attack" isn't going to work anyway, but without multiple CSGs in theatre, where is it going to come from? I hope to god they have a better plan than a few SSBNs dumping a couple of dozen cruise missiles all over a massive country that is basically one giant mountain fortress.
My dad served on fast-attack nuclear submarines (SSN-594, mostly). He's an interesting fellow. Your remark about SSBNs is correct. That's the only thing I learned from the old man about his service in the Navy: you never know where the SSBNs are

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Malcolm
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Re: Potential for War in Korea: Causes and Conditions

Post by Malcolm » Sat Feb 10, 2018 9:28 pm

Tlalok wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 11:29 pm
You do understand we are mobilizing for a war there?
If the US is seriously gearing up for a nuclear exchange with North Korea they are doing it terribly.
Are you surprised?
Buddhahood in This Life
འ༔ ཨ༔ ཧ༔ ཤ༔ ས༔ མ༔


[A]nything at all that is well spoken is the word of the Buddha.

-- Ārya-adhyāśaya-sañcodana-nāma-mahāyāna-sūtra

The different sūtras in accord with the emptiness
taught by the Sugata are definitive in meaning;
One can understand that all of those Dharmas in
which a sentient being, individual, or person are taught are provisional in meaning.

-- Samadhirāja Sūtra

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Tlalok
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Re: Potential for War in Korea: Causes and Conditions

Post by Tlalok » Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:23 pm

Malcolm wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 9:28 pm
Tlalok wrote:
Fri Feb 09, 2018 11:29 pm
You do understand we are mobilizing for a war there?
If the US is seriously gearing up for a nuclear exchange with North Korea they are doing it terribly.
Are you surprised?
I'm hoping that most of the brass realize how suicidal an attack on North Korea would be and are trying to keep Trump and his coterie of idiots away from doing something stupid. The US has over 20,000 troops around the DMZ that would all be dead in a few days if the North came over, which would be the biggest disaster in American military history (almost a third of the total losses in Vietnam in a week or so), on top of the destruction of some of the largest cities on the planet.

The truth is that the second the North got a warhead onto a rocket they completed their nuclear program. NK is now a nuclear power, and unfortunately there is nothing anyone can do to change that. They are never going to give up their nuclear weapons program. We have to learn to live in this world.
My dad served on fast-attack nuclear submarines (SSN-594, mostly). He's an interesting fellow. Your remark about SSBNs is correct. That's the only thing I learned from the old man about his service in the Navy: you never know where the SSBNs are
That's amazing, the Permit was a hell of a boat. I didn't know it went into service in 1961! Such a long service history.

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Malcolm
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Re: Potential for War in Korea: Causes and Conditions

Post by Malcolm » Sat Feb 10, 2018 11:10 pm

Tlalok wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:23 pm


The truth is that the second the North got a warhead onto a rocket they completed their nuclear program. NK is now a nuclear power, and unfortunately there is nothing anyone can do to change that. They are never going to give up their nuclear weapons program. We have to learn to live in this world.
Yes, I agree.
Buddhahood in This Life
འ༔ ཨ༔ ཧ༔ ཤ༔ ས༔ མ༔


[A]nything at all that is well spoken is the word of the Buddha.

-- Ārya-adhyāśaya-sañcodana-nāma-mahāyāna-sūtra

The different sūtras in accord with the emptiness
taught by the Sugata are definitive in meaning;
One can understand that all of those Dharmas in
which a sentient being, individual, or person are taught are provisional in meaning.

-- Samadhirāja Sūtra

DGA
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Re: Potential for War in Korea: Causes and Conditions

Post by DGA » Sun Feb 11, 2018 3:10 am

Tlalok wrote:
Sat Feb 10, 2018 10:23 pm
My dad served on fast-attack nuclear submarines (SSN-594, mostly). He's an interesting fellow. Your remark about SSBNs is correct. That's the only thing I learned from the old man about his service in the Navy: you never know where the SSBNs are
That's amazing, the Permit was a hell of a boat. I didn't know it went into service in 1961! Such a long service history.
Yes, a remarkable piece of technology. My dad spent the better part of the 1970s under the Pacific ocean. I think he said he spent all but 11 days in 1973 underway. That's a lot of cribbage and cigarettes. Now the Permit is scrap metal and its reactor core is buried somewhere at the Hanford site.

What a peculiar world. There was a time when a working-class kid from Oregon was safer on an underwater nuclear-powered hydrogen bomb delivery vehicle parked somewhere near Vladivostok than he would have been doing anything else available to him (such as getting drafted in to the infantry).

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Re: Potential for War in Korea: Causes and Conditions

Post by Jesse » Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:03 pm

I don't believe anything will happen. Everyone has too much to lose, and absolutely nothing to gain. North Korea Collapsing is Bad for China, Bad for NK, and Bad for the USA who financially backs SK, no-one (intelligent) really wants it to happen. However, Militarily It would allow the USA to position troops in unfavorable positions for China. Amazingly, the USA has already begun attempting to surround China Militarily. SK/Aus/JP are the major US positions atm. This was a huge deal a few years ago in the media. Still is, just don't hear about it as much. We have nearly 400 Military Bases around China presently, While China doesn't have a single one near us.

https://www.antiwar.com/blog/2014/02/25 ... onversely/

North and south Korea uniting is bad for China, they don't want it to happen. (The south is far more powerful, rich, and influential.) If they reunified, the south would almost certainly lead the charge. Thus the USA would gain a foothold that China would never tolerate.

The US can't afford to REALLY piss off China, they are a very powerful country, so we will not simply invade or preemptively strike NK as ppl have said. Won't happen. The US, and China would never go to ear either; they may have "Unofficial" Skirmishes, but it would never go beyond that.. Same as with Russia. Any of those 3 countries really fighting would be the end of the world, not to mention if the US fought either; it's pretty much a certainty that the other would join up against the US. Since the US is a shared enemy; at least more so than they are to each other. This would almost certainly result in nukes being used. So the US won't Strike, or Invade Period. (Then again, Trump is insane, arrogant, and stupid as a rock; well that's an insult to rocks, sorry rocks.)

North Korea will NEVER strike first, because if they do they will be annihilated, pure and simple. They would be able to cause a MASSIVE amount of destruction, damage, and death before going out... but they would lose, and lose fairly quickly, and they would lose everything. So won't happen.

The best thing that could happen is for everyone to try to calm NK the hell down, stop sanctions on them. Treat them better, provide more real assistance, and let them join the UN nuclear council, in exchange NK becomes a modern country on a major NATO council, and would be able to build up their country, fix their issues, and become self-reliant. Being part of NATO they would also have to change their standards of living for the citizens, they would have to open up to arms inspections (Just like every other country with nukes.)

It wouldn't happen fast, or without issue, and definitely not without some sacrifices, especially moral ones. But eventually the breed of North Korean that see's everyone else as Villians, and Monsters out to get them will die out, and new generations will be born... raised in an era where they are getting help, tourism, information, and other products/imports from these countries.. and will no longer see the devils that they have been brainwashed to see now. Kim Jung Un will eventually die, so will his supporters, and inner circle; eventually his influence will wane, fizzle, and disappear along with him.

In fact, the richer, and more stable the country becomes.. the better for everyone. The richer the population gets, and as laws/etc become less strict, and they are able to get real info/ maybe use a restricted form of internet, (ppl will always find a way past censorship, just as in China.). Citizens will begin to resist and attempt change from within. Even the rich would probably rather live in a modern, rich, and safe country. Free from fear of being imprisoned for any random reason, and send to death camps to die. Free from fear of invasion, and living under the foot of an insane regime.)

A stable NK Keeps the US from positioning troops in places China doesn't want them, and SK and the USA don't have to worry about either direct NK hostility, or them giving away nukes to terrorists, or their country falling to pieces, and nukes being stolen by terrorists, and other radical organizations. The South doesn't have to worry about a MASSIVE influx of North Koreans seeking shelter/aid, and needing to relocate. In fact, it could eventually lead to them having a better political association, less aggression, and being able to actually trade, and benefit each other economically.


But yeah, Humans are stupid, violent, and greedy barbarians.. It likely won't happen, at least anything that clean, direct, or positive.

Sorry for the long ass post, I'm just tired of hearing about all the Aggression, Potential Wars / Nukes / WW3, etc.

There are so many alternative solutions, and yet none of them are pursued. It's just plain sad.
The cost of a thing is the amount of what I call life which is required to be exchanged for it, immediately or in the long run.
-Henry David Thoreau

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Lucas Oliveira
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Re: Potential for War in Korea: Causes and Conditions

Post by Lucas Oliveira » Mon Feb 12, 2018 12:50 am

North Korea's Olympics delegation leaves thorny questions behind
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/02/11/asia ... index.html

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Re: Potential for War in Korea: Causes and Conditions

Post by Lucas Oliveira » Tue Mar 06, 2018 2:48 pm

North Korea willing to talk to US about giving up nuclear weapons, Seoul says

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/03/06/asia ... index.html


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Re: Potential for War in Korea: Causes and Conditions

Post by Lucas Oliveira » Sat Apr 21, 2018 8:19 pm

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Re: Potential for War in Korea: Causes and Conditions

Post by Lucas Oliveira » Fri Apr 27, 2018 2:25 am

Historic handshake between Koreas

After entering the Peace House for the inter-Korean summit, Kim Jong Un wrote in the guest book "a new history begins now" and "an age of peace, at the starting point of history."

https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/ ... index.html


North Korea's Kim Jong-un crosses into South Korea

Kim Jong-un has become the first North Korean leader to set foot in South Korea by crossing the military line that has divided the peninsula since the end of the Korean War in 1953.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-43914208


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