Korean War Over?

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Is the end of the Korean was a "good" thing?

Yes. War is abhorrent and these events have made the world a better place, however impermanently.
13
76%
No. There are many reasons why this is not a positive turn of events and I may or may not share these reasons in the thread below.
0
No votes
Neutral.
1
6%
Nagarjuna's Tetralemma.
3
18%
 
Total votes: 17

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Queequeg
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Re: Korean War Over?

Post by Queequeg » Sat May 05, 2018 3:35 pm

What you see is what you get.

Don't make the world more complicated for yourself by imagining all kinds of secret forces that you've never seen.

Carnies and rubes.

Which one are you?
Those who, even with distracted minds,
Entered a stupa compound
And chanted but once, “Namo Buddhaya!”
Have certainly attained the path of the buddhas.

-Lotus Sutra, Expedient Means Chapter

I think each human being has things to find out in his own life that are inescapable. They’ll find them out the easy way or the hard way, or whatever.
-Jerry Garcia

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Snowbear
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Re: Korean War Over?

Post by Snowbear » Sat May 05, 2018 7:30 pm

Queequeg wrote:
Sat May 05, 2018 3:35 pm
What you see is what you get.

Don't make the world more complicated for yourself by imagining all kinds of secret forces that you've never seen.

First start with awful foreign relations advise...
Carnies and rubes.

Which one are you?
...and end by flattening out all dimensions for us. Bravo. You won the game. FSB is hiring.

:rolling:

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Queequeg
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Re: Korean War Over?

Post by Queequeg » Sat May 05, 2018 8:33 pm

Don't flatter yourself. Wasn't talking to you.
Those who, even with distracted minds,
Entered a stupa compound
And chanted but once, “Namo Buddhaya!”
Have certainly attained the path of the buddhas.

-Lotus Sutra, Expedient Means Chapter

I think each human being has things to find out in his own life that are inescapable. They’ll find them out the easy way or the hard way, or whatever.
-Jerry Garcia

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Snowbear
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Re: Korean War Over?

Post by Snowbear » Sat May 05, 2018 9:01 pm

@Queequeg, Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Still like to hear other alternatives to the current outcome on NK from others.

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The Cicada
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Re: Korean War Over?

Post by The Cicada » Sun May 06, 2018 12:55 am

Snowbear wrote:
Sat May 05, 2018 9:01 pm
Still like to hear other alternatives to the current outcome on NK from others.
1. President Hillary Rodham Clinton tells Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un to stop being at war—which he does, because she is a woman.
2. President Bernie Sanders meets with Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un for peace talks in which North Korea and South Korea unite because America is now a communist country.
3. *Fingers in ears* "La la la la la la la la!" Etc.

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Queequeg
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Re: Korean War Over?

Post by Queequeg » Wed May 09, 2018 8:51 pm

Saw this on the NYT today:
"What Is Kim Jong-un’s Game?" https://nyti.ms/2KGRtOZ

The author who is a China specialist suggests Kim may actually be angling for closer relations with the US, the logic being that the US stands as the major counter balance to China in Asia. Never did this occur to me, and I am sure lots of people are mulling this over, but it makes complete sense.

Kim might be the savviest leader in Asia right now, which puts him at the top of the world.
Those who, even with distracted minds,
Entered a stupa compound
And chanted but once, “Namo Buddhaya!”
Have certainly attained the path of the buddhas.

-Lotus Sutra, Expedient Means Chapter

I think each human being has things to find out in his own life that are inescapable. They’ll find them out the easy way or the hard way, or whatever.
-Jerry Garcia

PeterC
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Re: Korean War Over?

Post by PeterC » Thu May 10, 2018 7:13 am

Queequeg wrote:
Wed May 09, 2018 8:51 pm
Saw this on the NYT today:
"What Is Kim Jong-un’s Game?" https://nyti.ms/2KGRtOZ

The author who is a China specialist suggests Kim may actually be angling for closer relations with the US, the logic being that the US stands as the major counter balance to China in Asia. Never did this occur to me, and I am sure lots of people are mulling this over, but it makes complete sense.

Kim might be the savviest leader in Asia right now, which puts him at the top of the world.
I don't really agree with the theory, because Kim's already had China trying to improve relations with him a few years back. When he took power he killed off everyone in the older generation that could threaten him (some in quite inventive ways, e.g. tying them to a stake and using them for artillery target practice), and it just happened that those were the people who had the closest relationships with their Chinese counterparts. There have been significant Chinese diplomatic efforts since them to strengthen their ties to Kim - he's had multiple meetings with XJP, including one arranged at extremely short notice after the recent DMZ event. Rapprochement with the US weakens Kim's leverage over China - tension between the US and NK is something that serves China's interests, because it puts the US in a position of asking China for help (yet unable to determine if that help has really been delivered), so it is willing to invest in keeping NK afloat on that basis.

I think the writer is correct that economic development is the short-term priority, and that the route to that is more trade with SK, but he dismisses that as a threat to the Kim family in NK when really it isn't. The compromise is that he reopens the export manufacturing plans that SK and NK had worked on several years back - would be easy to do and would still leave them walled off from SK. SK politicians' priority is de-escalation and not integration - that will take decades and be extremely painful and risky. In any case SK doesn't care very much about de-nuclearization for the reasons we discussed, and neither does China particularly, as the threat isn't pointed towards them. Japan and the US do care about it, and will push for a disarmament deal before a peace deal, whereas China/NK/SK will push for the opposite, and will probably win the argument.

I'm not sure it's a case of Kim being a tactical genius, though he clearly is no fool. It's more a case of Trump succeeding in dealing himself a bad hand from a marked deck (if that analogy works).

That said the weakness in all of this speculation is that Chinese policy-making is not a coherent single brain, and NK, though rational, gives us limited information from which to infer plans.

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Re: Korean War Over?

Post by Queequeg » Thu May 10, 2018 4:25 pm

PeterC wrote:
Thu May 10, 2018 7:13 am
When he took power he killed off everyone in the older generation that could threaten him (some in quite inventive ways, e.g. tying them to a stake and using them for artillery target practice), and it just happened that those were the people who had the closest relationships with their Chinese counterparts.
On one hand that purge was just classical power consolidation. The question is how much of that was also Kim looking to clear the table and get the Chinese influence out of his government. The way he eliminated these people clearly was meant to send a message.

Rapprochement with the US weakens Kim's leverage over China - tension between the US and NK is something that serves China's interests, because it puts the US in a position of asking China for help (yet unable to determine if that help has really been delivered), so it is willing to invest in keeping NK afloat on that basis.
I don't understand the reasoning here - rapprochement with the US has the effect of marginalizing China - the threat of a US friendly state (not that "friendly" is in the cards anytime soon) on China's border is a huge threat to China. If anything, getting friendly with the US would make China have to up their enticements to NK. Tension between the US and NK is in China's interest because that drives NK toward China. By getting friendlier with the US, NK increases their leverage against China - classic maneuver to play suitors off each other. The whole goal that NK has been angling toward for at least the last decade and half is bilateral talks with the US because that marginalizes China. China wants multilateral talks.
I think the writer is correct that economic development is the short-term priority, and that the route to that is more trade with SK, but he dismisses that as a threat to the Kim family in NK when really it isn't.
Can you clarify that?
I'm not sure it's a case of Kim being a tactical genius, though he clearly is no fool. It's more a case of Trump succeeding in dealing himself a bad hand from a marked deck (if that analogy works).
US stumbling in East Asia is bigger than Trump. US has not been on the ball in Asia since the end of the Cold War. US should have been more energetic in turning toward the Pacific, to the point that there is probably a really good argument to be made for moving the US capitol to the West Coast, or at least some place like CO.

Maybe there is something going on here if the tariffs and N. Korea are part of a larger US play in Asia, but Trump's record doesn't inspire any confidence that there is a cohesive plan.
Those who, even with distracted minds,
Entered a stupa compound
And chanted but once, “Namo Buddhaya!”
Have certainly attained the path of the buddhas.

-Lotus Sutra, Expedient Means Chapter

I think each human being has things to find out in his own life that are inescapable. They’ll find them out the easy way or the hard way, or whatever.
-Jerry Garcia

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Lucas Oliveira
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Re: Korean War Over?

Post by Lucas Oliveira » Thu May 10, 2018 4:47 pm

Trump-Kim Jong-un summit set for Singapore on 12 June
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-44074257

Trump announces North Korea summit will be in Singapore
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/05/10/poli ... index.html

:namaste:
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Re: Korean War Over?

Post by PeterC » Thu May 10, 2018 4:57 pm

Queequeg wrote:
Thu May 10, 2018 4:25 pm
PeterC wrote:
Thu May 10, 2018 7:13 am
When he took power he killed off everyone in the older generation that could threaten him (some in quite inventive ways, e.g. tying them to a stake and using them for artillery target practice), and it just happened that those were the people who had the closest relationships with their Chinese counterparts.
On one hand that purge was just classical power consolidation. The question is how much of that was also Kim looking to clear the table and get the Chinese influence out of his government. The way he eliminated these people clearly was meant to send a message.
I don’t think he did it specifically to reduce Chinese influence. It just happened to be that a lot of his father’s generation were close to their Chinese counterparts. As you say it was a standard purge, though done with more than normal enthusiasm
Rapprochement with the US weakens Kim's leverage over China - tension between the US and NK is something that serves China's interests, because it puts the US in a position of asking China for help (yet unable to determine if that help has really been delivered), so it is willing to invest in keeping NK afloat on that basis.
I don't understand the reasoning here - rapprochement with the US has the effect of marginalizing China - the threat of a US friendly state (not that "friendly" is in the cards anytime soon) on China's border is a huge threat to China. If anything, getting friendly with the US would make China have to up their enticements to NK. Tension between the US and NK is in China's interest because that drives NK toward China. By getting friendlier with the US, NK increases their leverage against China - classic maneuver to play suitors off each other. The whole goal that NK has been angling toward for at least the last decade and half is bilateral talks with the US because that marginalizes China. China wants multilateral talks.
The idea of nk being friendly with the US is not really the credible outcome of rapprochement, hence it doesn’t really threaten China in any meaningful way. China always subscribes to a reopening of the six-party dialogue but it’s very clear that they expect the substance of an agreement to be decided bilaterally between China and Nk. For all the posturing, nk without Chinese aid is a failed state, and the US is not going to be a substitute source of aid.
I think the writer is correct that economic development is the short-term priority, and that the route to that is more trade with SK, but he dismisses that as a threat to the Kim family in NK when really it isn't.
Can you clarify that?
The author said something like, trade with SK would be a slippery slope to reintegration. This is a bit naive. Expanding trade with SK is a very, very long way away from reintegration, and it’s not even clear that reintegration would be politically palatable in SK even if it were feasible, which it isn’t.

So limited rapprochement with SK is not a threat to the kims for the reasons the article puts forward. It is something that they would manage very carefully though. There are a lot of families split across the border who would reconnect if south-north travel were liberalised.
I'm not sure it's a case of Kim being a tactical genius, though he clearly is no fool. It's more a case of Trump succeeding in dealing himself a bad hand from a marked deck (if that analogy works).
US stumbling in East Asia is bigger than Trump. US has not been on the ball in Asia since the end of the Cold War. US should have been more energetic in turning toward the Pacific, to the point that there is probably a really good argument to be made for moving the US capitol to the West Coast, or at least some place like CO.

Maybe there is something going on here if the tariffs and N. Korea are part of a larger US play in Asia, but Trump's record doesn't inspire any confidence that there is a cohesive plan.
The frustrating thing about US foreign policy is that at any point in time there are always a lot of quite thoughtful people involved in it who know exactly what they *should* be doing. Many of the career officers in State are very capable (or at least were until the recent purges). But there’s no stability. Everything changes every four or eight years, or at present more frequently. A lot of success in foreign policy is really about just being consistent in what your goals are and how you pursue them. Democracies aren’t very good at that, and the US is institutionally incapable of it.

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Lucas Oliveira
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Re: Korean War Over?

Post by Lucas Oliveira » Wed May 23, 2018 4:04 pm

Two Koreas Celebrate Vesak With Joint Prayer

https://www.buddhistdoor.net/news/two-k ... int-prayer


:anjali:
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Queequeg
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Re: Korean War Over?

Post by Queequeg » Fri May 25, 2018 7:45 pm

Those who, even with distracted minds,
Entered a stupa compound
And chanted but once, “Namo Buddhaya!”
Have certainly attained the path of the buddhas.

-Lotus Sutra, Expedient Means Chapter

I think each human being has things to find out in his own life that are inescapable. They’ll find them out the easy way or the hard way, or whatever.
-Jerry Garcia

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Lindama
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Re: Korean War Over?

Post by Lindama » Sat May 26, 2018 5:42 am

NYT has again produced a seriously biased article... just look

The Iran deal has nothing to do with US national security... follow the oil and control of the middle east.
Not last night,
not this morning,
melon flowers bloomed.
~ Bassho

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Queequeg
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Re: Korean War Over?

Post by Queequeg » Sat May 26, 2018 2:13 pm

Lindama wrote:
Sat May 26, 2018 5:42 am
NYT has again produced a seriously biased article... just look

The Iran deal has nothing to do with US national security... follow the oil and control of the middle east.
Linda, what do you mean? Are you referring to the article I linked immediately above? That article refers to the Iran deal in passing to point out that these kinds of deals to settle thorny issues of nuclear proliferation are generally inperfect.
While it’s true that deals like the Iran nuclear agreement had inherent shortcomings, they also effectively advanced America’s national security. In fact, their limitations reflect a hard-nosed assessment of the risk of the alternatives, the broader geostrategic interests in play and the constraints on America’s leverage. In diplomacy, every deal is an imperfect deal. The question is, how imperfect? And at what cost? Unless you can produce a better alternative, tossing out a less-than-perfect agreement that does advance some concrete goals is an exercise in peril. “Repeal” is almost always simpler than “replace.”
That article criticizes Trump's approach... Are you suggesting that Trump is doing the right thing in Iran and Korea?
Those who, even with distracted minds,
Entered a stupa compound
And chanted but once, “Namo Buddhaya!”
Have certainly attained the path of the buddhas.

-Lotus Sutra, Expedient Means Chapter

I think each human being has things to find out in his own life that are inescapable. They’ll find them out the easy way or the hard way, or whatever.
-Jerry Garcia

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Lindama
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Re: Korean War Over?

Post by Lindama » Mon May 28, 2018 7:29 pm

I was seeing the article written from the pov of the US interests.... implying we had to give something up to bad boy in the Iran deal. I have seen conflicting idea about North Korea... they might come to light in negotiations. ... and the US seems to have forgotten our killing machine during the Korean war, all for our interests.

Back in the day, the NYT was my go to. no longer.... that's my bias

NO, DT is NOT doing the right thing on any issue.
Not last night,
not this morning,
melon flowers bloomed.
~ Bassho

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Queequeg
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Re: Korean War Over?

Post by Queequeg » Wed Jun 13, 2018 5:47 pm

They met. Both are banging the meeting out for every bit of publicity.

What happened?

1. US gave N. Korea the recognition that they are so important a US President would sit down, one on one, with their leader. NK 1 - US 0 (maybe -1)
2. Trump promised to suspend joint military maneuvers with S. Korea, to the surprise of the S. Koreans and the US Military. NK 2 - US 0 (maybe -2) - S. Korea -1.
3. US allies left wondering where they stand in all this... S. Korea -2 - Japan -1
4. China salivating at the prospect of the US led alliance in Asia is falling apart. Shot on goal on its way. Will it go in?

Realistically, US still holds the leverage here in the form of continued sanctions. Is Trump really the greatest deal maker, ever? Highly unlikely. Is he a competent deal maker with an unorthodox style? :shrug:

As long as this process continues to play, the likelihood of war, particularly nuclear war, is significantly reduced, though things can escalate almost instantaneously.
Those who, even with distracted minds,
Entered a stupa compound
And chanted but once, “Namo Buddhaya!”
Have certainly attained the path of the buddhas.

-Lotus Sutra, Expedient Means Chapter

I think each human being has things to find out in his own life that are inescapable. They’ll find them out the easy way or the hard way, or whatever.
-Jerry Garcia

Lukeinaz
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Re: Korean War Over?

Post by Lukeinaz » Wed Jun 13, 2018 7:20 pm

when trump was elected lama zopa predicted there would be less war.
Last edited by Lukeinaz on Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
You are truly astonishing--going to look for yourself when you already are yourself! --Longchen Rabjam

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Minobu
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Re: Korean War Over?

Post by Minobu » Wed Jun 13, 2018 7:30 pm

Kim won this round big time...
USA and the world got nothing...zelch....
a piece of paper hoping for what?

a couple of guys in Norway want to give trump nobel peace prize for this...announced today !!! lol

what was that about IQ's in the gutter?

Norwegian
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Re: Korean War Over?

Post by Norwegian » Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:00 pm

Minobu wrote:
Wed Jun 13, 2018 7:30 pm
Kim won this round big time...
USA and the world got nothing...zelch....
a piece of paper hoping for what?

a couple of guys in Norway want to give trump nobel peace prize for this...announced today !!! lol

what was that about IQ's in the gutter?
Those "couple of guys" belong to the Progress Party, a rather populist party which in a Norwegian context is very much right wing (but not far right wing).

For what it's worth, I think any mention of Trump and Nobel peace prize is premature and nonsensical, primarily because what Trump and Kim agreed upon, is not really that revolutionary, and a similar deal exists from decades ago, as far as I can remember, from having seen a screenshot of this new agreement compared with an old one. So it's not impressive. At all.

shaunc
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Re: Korean War Over?

Post by shaunc » Wed Jun 13, 2018 9:14 pm

So far not a shot has been fired and considering where we were a few months ago I'd have to say that it's not a bad outcome. Of course only time will tell.

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