Korean War Over?

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Is the end of the Korean was a "good" thing?

Yes. War is abhorrent and these events have made the world a better place, however impermanently.
13
76%
No. There are many reasons why this is not a positive turn of events and I may or may not share these reasons in the thread below.
0
No votes
Neutral.
1
6%
Nagarjuna's Tetralemma.
3
18%
 
Total votes: 17

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The Cicada
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Korean War Over?

Post by The Cicada » Mon Apr 30, 2018 5:49 pm

I read somewhere that the Korean War has ended somehow. I was curious whether participants here consider this recent turn of events to be fortunate or unfortunate, or what, generally, their thoughts are on this matter.

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Grigoris
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Re: Korean War Over?

Post by Grigoris » Mon Apr 30, 2018 5:56 pm

Depends on who won.

Were they wearing white hats, or black hats?
"My religion is not deceiving myself."
Jetsun Milarepa 1052-1135 CE

"Butchers, prostitutes, those guilty of the five most heinous crimes, outcasts, the underprivileged: all are utterly the substance of existence and nothing other than total bliss."
The Supreme Source - The Kunjed Gyalpo
The Fundamental Tantra of Dzogchen Semde

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Queequeg
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Re: Korean War Over?

Post by Queequeg » Mon Apr 30, 2018 6:15 pm

Not a done deal, but likely.

Its a brilliant move on Kim's part. It neutralizes the military threat from the US. The US can't intimidate the way it has been.

If this goes through, Kim will start opening his "Kingdom" to the world and get on the road to economic integration with the rest of East Asia which has developed and prospered while North Korea remained isolated and backward. I am sure he will make a play and likely become a powerful influence in the South. On the other hand, openness might weaken his position. He may need to parlay a more constitutional monarch type role.

Its probably another step toward reestablishing Chinese dominance of East Asia - back to what probably should be stasis.
Those who, even with distracted minds,
Entered a stupa compound
And chanted but once, “Namo Buddhaya!”
Have certainly attained the path of the buddhas.

-Lotus Sutra, Expedient Means Chapter

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The Cicada
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Re: Korean War Over?

Post by The Cicada » Mon Apr 30, 2018 8:34 pm

Grigoris wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 5:56 pm
Depends on who won.

Were they wearing white hats, or black hats?
Please just select the fourth option, Greg...

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Grigoris
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Re: Korean War Over?

Post by Grigoris » Mon Apr 30, 2018 8:51 pm

The Cicada wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 8:34 pm
Grigoris wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 5:56 pm
Depends on who won.

Were they wearing white hats, or black hats?
Please just select the fourth option, Greg...
Not at all. A war can end with the "bad guys" winning. Check the Spanish Civil War, for example. It lead to a Fascist dictatorship that lasted from 1939 to 1975.

So before I can judge whether it is fortunate or unfortunate, I have to know who won.

So who won?
"My religion is not deceiving myself."
Jetsun Milarepa 1052-1135 CE

"Butchers, prostitutes, those guilty of the five most heinous crimes, outcasts, the underprivileged: all are utterly the substance of existence and nothing other than total bliss."
The Supreme Source - The Kunjed Gyalpo
The Fundamental Tantra of Dzogchen Semde

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Queequeg
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Re: Korean War Over?

Post by Queequeg » Mon Apr 30, 2018 9:44 pm

If the war really ends and relations with N. Korea are normalized, N. Korea definitely wins. South Korea wins to the extent that annihilation of Seoul becomes less likely. I don't know how they stand up to N. Korean influence, though. I don't know how well they are going to stand up to the influence campaign that will be unleashed in their democracy. Rumor was that the agitation that brought down one of the recent presidents was at least in part paid for by N. Koreans (paid people to show up and demonstrate). I don't know who true that is, but the rumors are getting around.

US loses - while the US will continue to have a presence in S. Korea, with war ended, the US presence will likely decrease. Also, S. Koreans may, over time, be less interested in US protection.

China wins - this will ease up the pressure from the US close to their borders.

I am afraid that this will be a win for authoritarianism - another authoritarian state that will aggressively market their success. This will encourage other countries to take up authoritarian models.
Those who, even with distracted minds,
Entered a stupa compound
And chanted but once, “Namo Buddhaya!”
Have certainly attained the path of the buddhas.

-Lotus Sutra, Expedient Means Chapter

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Tiago Simões
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Re: Korean War Over?

Post by Tiago Simões » Mon Apr 30, 2018 10:26 pm

As long as the world doesn't forget that N. Korea has concentration camps... :roll:

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Re: Korean War Over?

Post by Queequeg » Tue May 01, 2018 6:25 pm

The discussion on Concentration Camps and Prisons has been split off: viewtopic.php?f=47&p=445916#p445916
Those who, even with distracted minds,
Entered a stupa compound
And chanted but once, “Namo Buddhaya!”
Have certainly attained the path of the buddhas.

-Lotus Sutra, Expedient Means Chapter

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Re: Korean War Over?

Post by PeterC » Fri May 04, 2018 5:11 am

Queequeg wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 6:15 pm
Its a brilliant move on Kim's part. It neutralizes the military threat from the US. The US can't intimidate the way it has been.
It is indeed a brilliant move. If he gets a peace treaty, which he will push for, then the US loses most of its leverage in negotiating for a disarmament treaty, which to them is the main event. South Korea would prefer a peace treaty anyway - Seoul is vulnerable to short-range artillery, and that is the major threat, nuclear weaponry is an incremental threat primarily to the US. A moderate thawing of relations with South Korea puts more pressure on China to raise their commitment to retain NK as a client. And the brilliant part of this is, all of it can be done without substantially loosening the Kim family's grip on the NK population. They can reopen the manufacturing zones, re-start trade in some areas, allow limited NK-SK family contact, all while maintaining the borders.

The US - well, Trump - will make a big deal about how he negotiated peace in Korea. Actually he helped entrench a dictatorial dynasty for another few decades. Kim has shown himself to be consistently one step ahead strategically. Putting a nuclear warhead on a missile, and releasing the targeting data for Guam to show that they could deploy the missile, was their Mordechai Vanunu moment. At that point he'd basically won.

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Re: Korean War Over?

Post by Queequeg » Fri May 04, 2018 2:54 pm

PeterC wrote:
Fri May 04, 2018 5:11 am
Kim has shown himself to be consistently one step ahead strategically.
:good:
Basically, everyone in East Asia is one to several steps ahead of the US, especially with Trump leading. Even Abe's hat in hand visit the day after Trump's election was Japan playing it's best hand. Trump just saw it as having his ring kissed, not realizing he was already being played as a pawn in the Pacific region great game.

East Asian maneuvering is just on a different level. These are all students of Sun Tzu.

It's a tragedy for everyone wanting to resist the PRC dominance in Asia that the US has become so stupid and weak in the region.
Those who, even with distracted minds,
Entered a stupa compound
And chanted but once, “Namo Buddhaya!”
Have certainly attained the path of the buddhas.

-Lotus Sutra, Expedient Means Chapter

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Re: Korean War Over?

Post by Snowbear » Fri May 04, 2018 9:14 pm

PeterC wrote:
Fri May 04, 2018 5:11 am
Queequeg wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 6:15 pm
Its a brilliant move on Kim's part. It neutralizes the military threat from the US. The US can't intimidate the way it has been.
It is indeed a brilliant move. If he gets a peace treaty, which he will push for, then the US loses most of its leverage in negotiating for a disarmament treaty, which to them is the main event. South Korea would prefer a peace treaty anyway - Seoul is vulnerable to short-range artillery, and that is the major threat, nuclear weaponry is an incremental threat primarily to the US. A moderate thawing of relations with South Korea puts more pressure on China to raise their commitment to retain NK as a client. And the brilliant part of this is, all of it can be done without substantially loosening the Kim family's grip on the NK population. They can reopen the manufacturing zones, re-start trade in some areas, allow limited NK-SK family contact, all while maintaining the borders.

The US - well, Trump - will make a big deal about how he negotiated peace in Korea. Actually he helped entrench a dictatorial dynasty for another few decades. Kim has shown himself to be consistently one step ahead strategically. Putting a nuclear warhead on a missile, and releasing the targeting data for Guam to show that they could deploy the missile, was their Mordechai Vanunu moment. At that point he'd basically won.
I don't understand the complaint. The situation was either to turn out like what we are seeing happening now or war with NK. There were no other options.

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Re: Korean War Over?

Post by PeterC » Sat May 05, 2018 3:01 am

Snowbear wrote:
Fri May 04, 2018 9:14 pm
PeterC wrote:
Fri May 04, 2018 5:11 am
Queequeg wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 6:15 pm
Its a brilliant move on Kim's part. It neutralizes the military threat from the US. The US can't intimidate the way it has been.
It is indeed a brilliant move. If he gets a peace treaty, which he will push for, then the US loses most of its leverage in negotiating for a disarmament treaty, which to them is the main event. South Korea would prefer a peace treaty anyway - Seoul is vulnerable to short-range artillery, and that is the major threat, nuclear weaponry is an incremental threat primarily to the US. A moderate thawing of relations with South Korea puts more pressure on China to raise their commitment to retain NK as a client. And the brilliant part of this is, all of it can be done without substantially loosening the Kim family's grip on the NK population. They can reopen the manufacturing zones, re-start trade in some areas, allow limited NK-SK family contact, all while maintaining the borders.

The US - well, Trump - will make a big deal about how he negotiated peace in Korea. Actually he helped entrench a dictatorial dynasty for another few decades. Kim has shown himself to be consistently one step ahead strategically. Putting a nuclear warhead on a missile, and releasing the targeting data for Guam to show that they could deploy the missile, was their Mordechai Vanunu moment. At that point he'd basically won.
I don't understand the complaint. The situation was either to turn out like what we are seeing happening now or war with NK. There were no other options.
Not sure I’m complaining about anything.

There were options early on, mostly around the Clinton and Bush administrations. Past that war was not an option. But at any point the idea that the US would attack them was pretty ludicrous, even for Trump.

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Re: Korean War Over?

Post by Queequeg » Sat May 05, 2018 5:01 am

Snowbear wrote:
Fri May 04, 2018 9:14 pm
PeterC wrote:
Fri May 04, 2018 5:11 am
Queequeg wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 6:15 pm
Its a brilliant move on Kim's part. It neutralizes the military threat from the US. The US can't intimidate the way it has been.
It is indeed a brilliant move. If he gets a peace treaty, which he will push for, then the US loses most of its leverage in negotiating for a disarmament treaty, which to them is the main event. South Korea would prefer a peace treaty anyway - Seoul is vulnerable to short-range artillery, and that is the major threat, nuclear weaponry is an incremental threat primarily to the US. A moderate thawing of relations with South Korea puts more pressure on China to raise their commitment to retain NK as a client. And the brilliant part of this is, all of it can be done without substantially loosening the Kim family's grip on the NK population. They can reopen the manufacturing zones, re-start trade in some areas, allow limited NK-SK family contact, all while maintaining the borders.

The US - well, Trump - will make a big deal about how he negotiated peace in Korea. Actually he helped entrench a dictatorial dynasty for another few decades. Kim has shown himself to be consistently one step ahead strategically. Putting a nuclear warhead on a missile, and releasing the targeting data for Guam to show that they could deploy the missile, was their Mordechai Vanunu moment. At that point he'd basically won.
I don't understand the complaint. The situation was either to turn out like what we are seeing happening now or war with NK. There were no other options.
Not binary.
Those who, even with distracted minds,
Entered a stupa compound
And chanted but once, “Namo Buddhaya!”
Have certainly attained the path of the buddhas.

-Lotus Sutra, Expedient Means Chapter

Snowbear
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Re: Korean War Over?

Post by Snowbear » Sat May 05, 2018 5:14 am

Not sure I’m complaining about anything.
Sounded like one.
PeterC wrote:
Sat May 05, 2018 3:01 am
There were options early on, mostly around the Clinton and Bush administrations. Past that war was not an option. But at any point the idea that the US would attack them was pretty ludicrous, even for Trump.
I'm interested in hearing what other outcomes that are “better” than this one could have happened in your opinion.

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Re: Korean War Over?

Post by Snowbear » Sat May 05, 2018 5:45 am

Queequeg wrote:
Fri May 04, 2018 2:54 pm
...the US has become so stupid and weak in the region.
One would have to brashly ignore ongoing U.S. actions in the Pacific in countering China to make that claim. The actual tragedy I think is that nothing has worked and therefore the best way the U.S. can realistically counter China in the pacific is through armed conflict. Nothing else will get through to the Chinese.

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Re: Korean War Over?

Post by Queequeg » Sat May 05, 2018 1:00 pm

Armed conflict is a boogie man. No one, not even Kim, is that stupid. US military puffery is not getting ready for war.

Too much money to be made to let war start.
Those who, even with distracted minds,
Entered a stupa compound
And chanted but once, “Namo Buddhaya!”
Have certainly attained the path of the buddhas.

-Lotus Sutra, Expedient Means Chapter

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Queequeg
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Re: Korean War Over?

Post by Queequeg » Sat May 05, 2018 1:04 pm

Snowbear wrote:
Sat May 05, 2018 5:45 am
Queequeg wrote:
Fri May 04, 2018 2:54 pm
...the US has become so stupid and weak in the region.
One would have to brashly ignore ongoing U.S. actions in the Pacific in countering China to make that claim. The actual tragedy I think is that nothing has worked and therefore the best way the U.S. can realistically counter China in the pacific is through armed conflict. Nothing else will get through to the Chinese.
It's a new cold war. China won't risk crashing their new car and US will not start war.
Those who, even with distracted minds,
Entered a stupa compound
And chanted but once, “Namo Buddhaya!”
Have certainly attained the path of the buddhas.

-Lotus Sutra, Expedient Means Chapter

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Re: Korean War Over?

Post by The Cicada » Sat May 05, 2018 1:10 pm

Queequeg wrote:
Fri May 04, 2018 2:54 pm

East Asian maneuvering is just on a different level. These are all students of Sun Tzu.
How do you know this isn't Trump playing 11 dimensional go?

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Queequeg
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Re: Korean War Over?

Post by Queequeg » Sat May 05, 2018 1:55 pm

The Cicada wrote:
Sat May 05, 2018 1:10 pm
Queequeg wrote:
Fri May 04, 2018 2:54 pm

East Asian maneuvering is just on a different level. These are all students of Sun Tzu.
How do you know this isn't Trump playing 11 dimensional go?
Because he's never shown aptitude for it before. He's just id.
Those who, even with distracted minds,
Entered a stupa compound
And chanted but once, “Namo Buddhaya!”
Have certainly attained the path of the buddhas.

-Lotus Sutra, Expedient Means Chapter

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The Cicada
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Re: Korean War Over?

Post by The Cicada » Sat May 05, 2018 2:08 pm

Queequeg wrote:
Sat May 05, 2018 1:55 pm
The Cicada wrote:
Sat May 05, 2018 1:10 pm
Queequeg wrote:
Fri May 04, 2018 2:54 pm

East Asian maneuvering is just on a different level. These are all students of Sun Tzu.
How do you know this isn't Trump playing 11 dimensional go?
Because he's never shown aptitude for it before. He's just id.
How do you know Trump's id isn't a streamlined 11 dimensional go algorithm?

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