Praetorian Guard starting to move?

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Queequeg
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Re: Praetorian Guard starting to move?

Post by Queequeg » Mon Aug 20, 2018 9:43 pm

Grigoris wrote:
Mon Aug 20, 2018 9:25 pm
Queequeg wrote:
Mon Aug 20, 2018 7:37 pm
None of us wants that.
Speak for yourself!
I underestimated you.
Those who, even with distracted minds,
Entered a stupa compound
And chanted but once, “Namo Buddhaya!”
Have certainly attained the path of the buddhas.

-Lotus Sutra, Expedient Means Chapter

There are beings with little dust in their eyes who are falling away because they do not hear the Dhamma. There will be those who will understand the Dhamma.
-Ayacana Sutta

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kirtu
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Re: Praetorian Guard starting to move?

Post by kirtu » Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:19 pm

The Cicada wrote:
Mon Aug 20, 2018 8:52 pm
Addressing the board with a related question for consideration:

What do we anticipate would happen once a coup against the current president has taken place; what would be the immediate and concatenate effects of this event?
"Seven Days in May" was a movie. It is impossible to launch a coup in the United States against the occupants of the Executive Branch. Impossible. The United States is not Turkey or the Weimar Republic.

What is not impossible are former directors of executive agencies as well as retired generals and admirals speaking out against particular policies that they see as injurious to the image of the United States and/or correct government process. That's just unprecedented (in some previous administrations we have seen some generals and admirals occasionally speaking out but we have never before seen this level of criticism from retired general rank officers).

So what actions are possible are: under some conditions some military officers refuse to follow orders specifically citing the immorality of the order or the unfitness of the commander in chief under very specific circumstances (refusing to follow orders based on the immorality of the order is something the military has been trained for since the 70's - it has never been tested, claiming the unfitness of the commander in chief has been floated but is not part of training). Example: the President gets up in the middle of the night and decides to launch a nuclear first strike without any precedent or discussion. Secondly, the Supreme Court may rule against a specific policy. Third, Congress may pass a law (that the President may veto and then Congress may override the veto) that invalidates a policy. None of these are likely except the Supreme Court ruling which in the current environment would have to be something egregious.

Kirt
Kirt's Tibetan Translation Notes

"Even if you practice only for an hour a day with faith and inspiration, good qualities will steadily increase. Regular practice makes it easy to transform your mind. From seeing only relative truth, you will eventually reach a profound certainty in the meaning of absolute truth."
Kyabje Dilgo Khyentse Rinpoche.

"Only you can make your mind beautiful."
HH Chetsang Rinpoche

PeterC
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Re: Praetorian Guard starting to move?

Post by PeterC » Tue Aug 21, 2018 5:01 am

kirtu wrote:
Mon Aug 20, 2018 11:19 pm
The Cicada wrote:
Mon Aug 20, 2018 8:52 pm
Addressing the board with a related question for consideration:

What do we anticipate would happen once a coup against the current president has taken place; what would be the immediate and concatenate effects of this event?
"Seven Days in May" was a movie. It is impossible to launch a coup in the United States against the occupants of the Executive Branch. Impossible. The United States is not Turkey or the Weimar Republic.

What is not impossible are former directors of executive agencies as well as retired generals and admirals speaking out against particular policies that they see as injurious to the image of the United States and/or correct government process. That's just unprecedented (in some previous administrations we have seen some generals and admirals occasionally speaking out but we have never before seen this level of criticism from retired general rank officers).

So what actions are possible are: under some conditions some military officers refuse to follow orders specifically citing the immorality of the order or the unfitness of the commander in chief under very specific circumstances (refusing to follow orders based on the immorality of the order is something the military has been trained for since the 70's - it has never been tested, claiming the unfitness of the commander in chief has been floated but is not part of training). Example: the President gets up in the middle of the night and decides to launch a nuclear first strike without any precedent or discussion. Secondly, the Supreme Court may rule against a specific policy. Third, Congress may pass a law (that the President may veto and then Congress may override the veto) that invalidates a policy. None of these are likely except the Supreme Court ruling which in the current environment would have to be something egregious.

Kirt
I'm not sure that the idea of a coup is so unthinkable. Coups come in all shapes and sizes. Most claim a basis in legal process - the so-called Weimar Republic period ended with a vote in the Reichstag, for instance, though a certain amount of coercion was involved in that vote.

Military coups succeed so easily because they utilize the normal chain of command, rather than having to subvert it: once they've started, the civilian government suddenly finds its ability to control the military is a lot less than it thought it was. Take your scenario of an unprovoked nuclear first strike ordered at 3am. Suppose the Joint Chiefs had a meeting and decided that they didn't consider the president competent to act as C-in-C, and got a military lawyer to issue some opinion justifying them abrogating his authority. I think that under those circumstances, they may very well have that discussion and come to that conclusion. This then puts the legislature - which provides their funds and oversees them - and the rest of the senior executive in a difficult position: which side do they support? That's the sort of scenario where you could imagine an invoking of the 25th Amendment, or some other basis for removal from office (I'm sure there are other legal premises that could be manufactured to achieve that). In the case of a 25th Amendment declaration of incapacitation, you only need a relatively small number of signatories to make that effective, and those could potentially be obtained through coercion.

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kirtu
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Re: Praetorian Guard starting to move?

Post by kirtu » Tue Aug 21, 2018 5:57 am

PeterC wrote:
Tue Aug 21, 2018 5:01 am
I'm not sure that the idea of a coup is so unthinkable. Coups come in all shapes and sizes. Most claim a basis in legal process - the so-called Weimar Republic period ended with a vote in the Reichstag, for instance, though a certain amount of coercion was involved in that vote.
Getting the Reichstag to vote for the Enabling Act was not a coup. It was all legal. The actual unexplained coup (of sorts) was Hitler's fusion of the office of the President and the Chancellor in the summer of 1934. Why the military didn't act to remove him from power at that point is unclear (except that a majority supported him sufficiently).
Take your scenario of an unprovoked nuclear first strike ordered at 3am. Suppose the Joint Chiefs had a meeting and decided that they didn't consider the president competent to act as C-in-C, and got a military lawyer to issue some opinion justifying them abrogating his authority. I think that under those circumstances, they may very well have that discussion and come to that conclusion.
This would then be immediately taken up by the Supreme Court unless Congress began impeachment proceedings. That is not a coup.
That's the sort of scenario where you could imagine an invoking of the 25th Amendment, or some other basis for removal from office (I'm sure there are other legal premises that could be manufactured to achieve that). In the case of a 25th Amendment declaration of incapacitation, you only need a relatively small number of signatories to make that effective, and those could potentially be obtained through coercion.
Invoking the 25th Admendment is not a coup.

Kirt
Kirt's Tibetan Translation Notes

"Even if you practice only for an hour a day with faith and inspiration, good qualities will steadily increase. Regular practice makes it easy to transform your mind. From seeing only relative truth, you will eventually reach a profound certainty in the meaning of absolute truth."
Kyabje Dilgo Khyentse Rinpoche.

"Only you can make your mind beautiful."
HH Chetsang Rinpoche

PeterC
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Re: Praetorian Guard starting to move?

Post by PeterC » Tue Aug 21, 2018 6:17 am

kirtu wrote:
Tue Aug 21, 2018 5:57 am
PeterC wrote:
Tue Aug 21, 2018 5:01 am
I'm not sure that the idea of a coup is so unthinkable. Coups come in all shapes and sizes. Most claim a basis in legal process - the so-called Weimar Republic period ended with a vote in the Reichstag, for instance, though a certain amount of coercion was involved in that vote.
Getting the Reichstag to vote for the Enabling Act was not a coup. It was all legal. The actual unexplained coup (of sorts) was Hitler's fusion of the office of the President and the Chancellor in the summer of 1934. Why the military didn't act to remove him from power at that point is unclear (except that a majority supported him sufficiently).
Take your scenario of an unprovoked nuclear first strike ordered at 3am. Suppose the Joint Chiefs had a meeting and decided that they didn't consider the president competent to act as C-in-C, and got a military lawyer to issue some opinion justifying them abrogating his authority. I think that under those circumstances, they may very well have that discussion and come to that conclusion.
This would then be immediately taken up by the Supreme Court unless Congress began impeachment proceedings. That is not a coup.
That's the sort of scenario where you could imagine an invoking of the 25th Amendment, or some other basis for removal from office (I'm sure there are other legal premises that could be manufactured to achieve that). In the case of a 25th Amendment declaration of incapacitation, you only need a relatively small number of signatories to make that effective, and those could potentially be obtained through coercion.
Invoking the 25th Admendment is not a coup.

Kirt
I think you're construing the meaning of 'coup' too narrowly. Subversion of a duly elected government doesn't just require tanks on the streets and general sending politicians to firing squads.

By way of analogy - certain ways of paying money to politicians in order to obtain favorable legislation are generally considered as bribery. The prevailing legal framework in the US makes them legal. Does that mean that the term 'bribery' cannot apply in those situations?

PeterC
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Re: Praetorian Guard starting to move?

Post by PeterC » Tue Aug 21, 2018 6:29 am

kirtu wrote:
Tue Aug 21, 2018 5:57 am
PeterC wrote:
Tue Aug 21, 2018 5:01 am
Take your scenario of an unprovoked nuclear first strike ordered at 3am. Suppose the Joint Chiefs had a meeting and decided that they didn't consider the president competent to act as C-in-C, and got a military lawyer to issue some opinion justifying them abrogating his authority. I think that under those circumstances, they may very well have that discussion and come to that conclusion.
This would then be immediately taken up by the Supreme Court unless Congress began impeachment proceedings. That is not a coup.
This is a bit of a digression into conlaw,but actually I'm not sure that would happen at all. Before you even got to petition SCOTUS for mandamus, you would have to chop your way through a legal thicket to show justiciability - to get them to assert title III original jurisdiction over executive chain-of-command disputes. You'd probably prevail, but it wouldn't be straightforward, as this is fundamentally not what SCOTUS is designed to do (and all the current justices would be very clear on that point). There's also potentially a ripeness issue - if the petition centers on them not obeying a valid order, then it first becomes a UCMJ issue and needs to go through the courts martial system. And even if you obtained that writ, how would you enforce it? Normally SCOTUS' power is exercised by remanding to the lower courts for proceedings not inconsistent etc etc. But are there courts that exert enforcement power over that level of the military? Assuming they continued not to comply, then POTUS would proceed by removal of the staff and replacement with alternatives - which you could have done in the first place without resort to the courts. But if the Joint Chiefs had made that determination, good luck finding alternative military staff who will then follow your orders - and this is assuming that the legislature hasn't weighed in in the meantime.

It's an interesting hypothetical. I think the short version is that if POTUS did something so egregious that a senior group of career military officers decided to publicly give him the finger, then he is unlikely to win the fight, whatever means he uses.


To return to the original point - you said that the US wasn't the Weimar republic. You and I then agreed that the actions that placed Hitler in power were not prima facie illegal (with the caveat that they rested on intimidation of certain parties) and therefore were not a coup. It therefore feels like you're agreeing that there isn't a rigid and absolute definition of 'coup'.

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Re: Praetorian Guard starting to move?

Post by amanitamusc » Tue Aug 21, 2018 9:33 am

There is a good movie somewhere in all this but it must include putin..

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Grigoris
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Re: Praetorian Guard starting to move?

Post by Grigoris » Tue Aug 21, 2018 10:32 am

amanitamusc wrote:
Tue Aug 21, 2018 9:33 am
There is a good movie somewhere in all this but it must include putin..
I reckon Bob Hoskins would be perfect for the role!
"My religion is not deceiving myself."
Jetsun Milarepa 1052-1135 CE

"Butchers, prostitutes, those guilty of the five most heinous crimes, outcasts, the underprivileged: all are utterly the substance of existence and nothing other than total bliss."
The Supreme Source - The Kunjed Gyalpo
The Fundamental Tantra of Dzogchen Semde

Bristollad
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Re: Praetorian Guard starting to move?

Post by Bristollad » Tue Aug 21, 2018 11:08 am

Grigoris wrote:
Tue Aug 21, 2018 10:32 am
amanitamusc wrote:
Tue Aug 21, 2018 9:33 am
There is a good movie somewhere in all this but it must include putin..
I reckon Bob Hoskins would be perfect for the role!
Nah, he’s got too much humanity. Need an actor whose eyes are emotionally dead, full emotional detachment: maybe Stevan Seagal if he losts a ton of weight and got rid of the wig; he’s never managed to portray emotion in any movie I’ve seen him in and he’s buddies with Putin :rolling:

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Grigoris
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Re: Praetorian Guard starting to move?

Post by Grigoris » Tue Aug 21, 2018 11:17 am

Bristollad wrote:
Tue Aug 21, 2018 11:08 am
Nah, he’s got too much humanity. Need an actor whose eyes are emotionally dead, full emotional detachment: maybe Stevan Seagal if he losts a ton of weight and got rid of the wig; he’s never managed to portray emotion in any movie I’ve seen him in and he’s buddies with Putin :rolling:
Seagal is too tall. That is why I recommended Hoskins. Plus Seagal doesn't know how to act.
"My religion is not deceiving myself."
Jetsun Milarepa 1052-1135 CE

"Butchers, prostitutes, those guilty of the five most heinous crimes, outcasts, the underprivileged: all are utterly the substance of existence and nothing other than total bliss."
The Supreme Source - The Kunjed Gyalpo
The Fundamental Tantra of Dzogchen Semde

amanitamusc
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Re: Praetorian Guard starting to move?

Post by amanitamusc » Tue Aug 21, 2018 11:49 am

Grigoris wrote:
Tue Aug 21, 2018 11:17 am
Bristollad wrote:
Tue Aug 21, 2018 11:08 am
Nah, he’s got too much humanity. Need an actor whose eyes are emotionally dead, full emotional detachment: maybe Stevan Seagal if he losts a ton of weight and got rid of the wig; he’s never managed to portray emotion in any movie I’ve seen him in and he’s buddies with Putin :rolling:
Seagal is too tall. That is why I recommended Hoskins. Plus Seagal doesn't know how to act.
Beck Bennett

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justsit
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Re: Praetorian Guard starting to move?

Post by justsit » Tue Aug 21, 2018 2:20 pm

Possibly relevant to this conversation :spy:


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Re: Praetorian Guard starting to move?

Post by Nemo » Tue Aug 21, 2018 4:24 pm

Trump is in no danger. When I was in the army I watched the number of contractors exceed 50% of troops in Afghanistan. About 65% of intel work is private now. Mercenary armies run the show. They pay 3 to 6 times what the army does and no Code of Service Discipline.
https://theintercept.com/2017/12/04/tru ... e-enemies/

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Queequeg
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Re: Praetorian Guard starting to move?

Post by Queequeg » Tue Aug 21, 2018 5:47 pm

justsit wrote:
Tue Aug 21, 2018 2:20 pm
Possibly relevant to this conversation :spy:
That movie is brilliant. One of the things I really liked was how uneasy it made me because I couldn't settle into comedy mode or drama mode. "Should I be laughing at this? What does it say about me that I find this hilarious?"

LOL
Those who, even with distracted minds,
Entered a stupa compound
And chanted but once, “Namo Buddhaya!”
Have certainly attained the path of the buddhas.

-Lotus Sutra, Expedient Means Chapter

There are beings with little dust in their eyes who are falling away because they do not hear the Dhamma. There will be those who will understand the Dhamma.
-Ayacana Sutta

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