Tulsi Gabbard

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Tulsi Gabbard

Post by DNS » Sat Jan 12, 2019 5:50 am

Tulsi Gabbard has announced she will run for POTUS, 2020.
Gabbard has spoken about growing up as a mixed-race girl in a multicultural and multireligious household: her father is of Samoan and European ancestry and an active lector at his Catholic church, but also enjoys practicing mantra meditation, including kirtan. Her mother is of European descent and a practicing Hindu. Tulsi chose Hinduism as her religion while she was a teenager.
It's a long-shot, but if she wins, she'd be the first Hindu to be president (and also first woman, first Samoan).

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Re: Tulsi Gabbard

Post by MiphamFan » Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:08 am

Awesome, she looks like one of the best candidates among the new generation of Democrats.

Probably will have a hard time winning, but may the Devas aid her.

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Re: Tulsi Gabbard

Post by ford_truckin » Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:45 am

Democrats aren't winning in 2020.
"We should not express outwardly signs of wisdom, goodness, or diligence, for inwardly we are filled with falsity."
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Re: Tulsi Gabbard

Post by SonamTashi » Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:39 am

ford_truckin wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:45 am
Democrats aren't winning in 2020.
It is all just opinions either way, but I think it is highly unlikely that the Democrats won't win.
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Re: Tulsi Gabbard

Post by Grigoris » Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:17 am

I believe the Republicans will win (unless Trump gets impeached, which he won't).

And I do not say that because I like the Republicans. Hell, I don't even like the Democrats.
"My religion is not deceiving myself."
Jetsun Milarepa 1052-1135 CE

"Butchers, prostitutes, those guilty of the five most heinous crimes, outcasts, the underprivileged: all are utterly the substance of existence and nothing other than total bliss."
The Supreme Source - The Kunjed Gyalpo
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Re: Tulsi Gabbard

Post by MiphamFan » Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:15 pm

Democrats might actually have a chance if they stand for the common man, which they used to do.

Do you think the common American welcomes mass unrestricted immigration?

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Re: Tulsi Gabbard

Post by ford_truckin » Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:31 am

SonamTashi wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:39 am

It is all just opinions either way, but I think it is highly unlikely that the Democrats won't win.
What everyone thought in 2016 and then the complete opposite happened.
"We should not express outwardly signs of wisdom, goodness, or diligence, for inwardly we are filled with falsity."
- Shinran Shonin

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Re: Tulsi Gabbard

Post by krodha » Sun Jan 13, 2019 1:07 am

ford_truckin wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:31 am
SonamTashi wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:39 am

It is all just opinions either way, but I think it is highly unlikely that the Democrats won't win.
What everyone thought in 2016 and then the complete opposite happened.
The opposite didn’t happen given that Trump lost the popular vote.

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Re: Tulsi Gabbard

Post by Johnny Dangerous » Sun Jan 13, 2019 2:42 am

ford_truckin wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:31 am
SonamTashi wrote:
Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:39 am

It is all just opinions either way, but I think it is highly unlikely that the Democrats won't win.
What everyone thought in 2016 and then the complete opposite happened.
A different thing once happened to what people thought would happen? Surely that means that that different thing will happen again, just because it's a different thing. Sound reasoning.
His welcoming
& rebelling are scattered,
gone to their end,
do not exist.
Knowing the dustless, sorrowless state,
he discerns rightly,
has gone, beyond becoming,
to the Further Shore.

-Lokavipatti Sutta

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Re: Tulsi Gabbard

Post by SonamTashi » Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:06 pm

No matter what happens, I think it is safe to assume 8-9 out of 10 Rupublicans are going to vote red. So Trump/Republicans certainly have a chance.

However, the reason the Dems lost in 2016 was because of an uninspired base. They simply couldn't inspire conviction in their candidate. This time around, I don't thing Democrats need to inspire conviction in any specific candidate. Democratic Party voters are appalled by Trump, and they're going to get out and do all they can to vote him out. So 80-90% of Dems are going to vote blue no matter what happens.

There are two major factors that will decide the election: who wins the independent vote, and which party gets more party voters out. Regarding the second one: Republicans may take it for granted that Trump will win, while Democrats may get out and vote in larger numbers because of the negative inspiration Trump provides.

In regards to the first factor: there is certainly a percentage of independents who like Trump just as much as the Republicans. I don't know how many people here are familiar with QAnon and similar movements/conspiracies, but part of their schtick is appealing to anti-establishment tendencies. Trump ran on that premise originally, so anti-establishment (but overwhelmingly right wing) conspiracies like QAnon glued themselves to Trump as their saviour. This will appeal to a certain amount of (Republican leaning) independents.

But I doubt it appeals to enough for Trump to win. Considering that each major party makes up about a quarter of the voting pool, with a 39% approval rating (Gallup), including a Republican approval rating of 89%, it is easy to see that Trump has the approval of a small percentage of independents, but the amount who disapprove is much larger. So I think the Democrats will easily win the independent vote. For comparison: average approval rating this far into a first term is 56%, so Trump is 17% lower than average. I doubt he survives that.

I myself am a Democrat leaning independent. I live with a Trump voter, and I know many people and have several friends who are Trump voters. I live in Utah so I know many Republicans, including my parents and much of my family. But something that has carried over quite a bit from the last election is how much Mormons despise Trump. My parents and Republican siblings hate him, and I could see them voting blue for the first time in their lives. Obviously this is anecdotal, and Trump will still win in Utah, but I think you will see a much larger percentage of Republicans and right leaning independents in Utah either voting blue or staying home than you normally would. My parents have lost almost all hope for the Republican party, and they've been Republicans their whole lives.

I also have many friends and family members who are Democrat or independents. Overall, the people in my life run the gamut of political views, from left, to center, to right. While I know lots of Trump voters, the amount of anti-Trumpists I know is much larger. This is all anecdotal, but I just don't see Trump getting nearly enough of the independent vote to win.

And as a former Bernie bro who wrote Bernie's name in last time, I don't think as many people are going to vote 3rd party. I think many people who normally would are afraid to now. I think this all amounts to Democrats winning by a landslide. Republicans might be able to win if they drop Trump or if he gets impeached and they're forced to run somebody else, but that also might just be the final blow to the party itself.

The one thing that would lead to a Trump victory would be if fringe groups like QAnon are not as fringe as they appear. I encourage anyone who is unfamiliar with QAnon to look it up, but I hope you have a strong stomach. It is nasty stuff. Estimates put the number of QAnon believers, or Qultists, at anywhere from 400k to 1 million people. [QAnon may seem like a strange and unique internet theory or even a LARP, but it is a group that exists in reality and (knowing several people like this) it is very scary to see in person.] That shouldn't be anywhere near enough to turn the tide of the election, but they're only one such group, and it is possible they reflect a much deeper and more common trait in the Republican base: an undying love of Trump matched with an undying hatred of Democrats. QAnon believers, who deeply believe in a deep state trying to overthrow Trump, will be perhaps more motivated to vote than any other group. If this holds true for Republicans in general, then the lower turnout I'm expecting from Republicans may not hold up.
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Re: Tulsi Gabbard

Post by Grigoris » Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:32 pm

SonamTashi wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:06 pm
In regards to the first factor: there is certainly a percentage of independents who like Trump just as much as the Republicans. I don't know how many people here are familiar with QAnon and similar movements/conspiracies, but part of their schtick is appealing to anti-establishment tendencies. Trump ran on that premise originally, so anti-establishment (but overwhelmingly right wing) conspiracies like QAnon glued themselves to Trump as their saviour. This will appeal to a certain amount of (Republican leaning) independents.
I love it how Right-wing anti-establishment types are actually never anti-establishment.
"My religion is not deceiving myself."
Jetsun Milarepa 1052-1135 CE

"Butchers, prostitutes, those guilty of the five most heinous crimes, outcasts, the underprivileged: all are utterly the substance of existence and nothing other than total bliss."
The Supreme Source - The Kunjed Gyalpo
The Fundamental Tantra of Dzogchen Semde

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Re: Tulsi Gabbard

Post by Malcolm » Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:32 pm

SonamTashi wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:06 pm
No matter what happens, I think it is safe to assume 8-9 out of 10 Rupublicans are going to vote red. So Trump/Republicans certainly have a chance.

However, the reason the Dems lost in 2016 was because of an uninspired base.
They didn't lose. They won the popular vote by by four million.
They simply couldn't inspire conviction in their candidate.
No, they lost on a technicality.

This time around, I don't thing Democrats need to inspire conviction in any specific candidate. Democratic Party voters are appalled by Trump, and they're going to get out and do all they can to vote him out. So 80-90% of Dems are going to vote blue no matter what happens.
Everyone who is not a racist is appalled by Trump.
For comparison: average approval rating this far into a first term is 56%, so Trump is 17% lower than average. I doubt he survives that.
I agree. At this point, he has made such a mess, it seems impossible he could pull of an actual win, like Bush in 2004.
The one thing that would lead to a Trump victory would be if fringe groups like QAnon are not as fringe as they appear.
Trump can only win the next election through election fraud, IMO.

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Re: Tulsi Gabbard

Post by Tlalok » Sun Jan 13, 2019 11:21 pm

I can see a scenario where Trump wins in 2020, but it requires some truly insane things happening in the next two years.

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Re: Tulsi Gabbard

Post by justsit » Sun Jan 13, 2019 11:42 pm

If the Democrats pick the wrong candidate (ie, anyone other than a centrist) to run and if Bernie runs again, IMO the Dems will lose. Bernie still has a lot of supporters, and he would once again siphon off Democratic votes. And the Electoral College isn't going away any time soon - reform has been a hot topic every election year since I started voting in 1974 and nothing ever changes.

The Dems historically are extremely skilled at shooting themselves in the foot by picking a candidate they think the progressives will like instead of a candidate who can actually win.

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Re: Tulsi Gabbard

Post by KeithA » Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:27 am

Malcolm wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:32 pm
SonamTashi wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:06 pm
No matter what happens, I think it is safe to assume 8-9 out of 10 Rupublicans are going to vote red. So Trump/Republicans certainly have a chance.

However, the reason the Dems lost in 2016 was because of an uninspired base.
They didn't lose. They won the popular vote by by four million.
They simply couldn't inspire conviction in their candidate.
No, they lost on a technicality.

This time around, I don't thing Democrats need to inspire conviction in any specific candidate. Democratic Party voters are appalled by Trump, and they're going to get out and do all they can to vote him out. So 80-90% of Dems are going to vote blue no matter what happens.
Everyone who is not a racist is appalled by Trump.
For comparison: average approval rating this far into a first term is 56%, so Trump is 17% lower than average. I doubt he survives that.
I agree. At this point, he has made such a mess, it seems impossible he could pull of an actual win, like Bush in 2004.
The one thing that would lead to a Trump victory would be if fringe groups like QAnon are not as fringe as they appear.
Trump can only win the next election through election fraud, IMO.
All true.

She has no chance, though. Some pretty serious past baggage weighs her down.

This is the silly season where candidates who have no chance come out of the woodwork for attention. The pendulum has swung over to the fascist side of things in America. I hope that we don't swing to far the other way. Even though I identify most strongly with progressive liberal policies, I have always had the pragmatic view that my government functions best when the fringes on both the left and right are most unhappy.


_/|\_

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Re: Tulsi Gabbard

Post by Tlalok » Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:41 pm

justsit wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 11:42 pm
If the Democrats pick the wrong candidate (ie, anyone other than a centrist) to run and if Bernie runs again, IMO the Dems will lose. Bernie still has a lot of supporters, and he would once again siphon off Democratic votes. And the Electoral College isn't going away any time soon - reform has been a hot topic every election year since I started voting in 1974 and nothing ever changes.

The Dems historically are extremely skilled at shooting themselves in the foot by picking a candidate they think the progressives will like instead of a candidate who can actually win.
Sanders did not meaningfully split the Democratic vote. He didn't stand in the general as an independent.

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Re: Tulsi Gabbard

Post by MiphamFan » Tue Jan 15, 2019 4:25 am

justsit wrote:
Sun Jan 13, 2019 11:42 pm
If the Democrats pick the wrong candidate (ie, anyone other than a centrist) to run and if Bernie runs again, IMO the Dems will lose. Bernie still has a lot of supporters, and he would once again siphon off Democratic votes. And the Electoral College isn't going away any time soon - reform has been a hot topic every election year since I started voting in 1974 and nothing ever changes.

The Dems historically are extremely skilled at shooting themselves in the foot by picking a candidate they think the progressives will like instead of a candidate who can actually win.
Hillary was a centrist and she failed to get votes in the key flyover states.

They should get a genuine left-leaning candidate willing to fight the banks, the military-industrial complex, and to develop American industry to inspire the flyover states.

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Re: Tulsi Gabbard

Post by justsit » Tue Jan 15, 2019 4:59 am

Tlalok wrote:
Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:41 pm
justsit wrote:...
Sanders did not meaningfully split the Democratic vote. He didn't stand in the general as an independent.
Some of his supporters refused to vote as Democrats for Hillary, hence my use of the term "siphon" rather than "split" the vote.
Depending on where those voters lived, the effect may have been significant.
Last edited by justsit on Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:11 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Tulsi Gabbard

Post by justsit » Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:10 am

MiphamFan wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 4:25 am
[quote=justsit ...
Hillary was a centrist and she failed to get votes in the key flyover states.

They should get a genuine left-leaning candidate willing to fight the banks, the military-industrial complex, and to develop American industry to inspire the flyover states.
[/quote]

Hillary was a centrist? And she had a whole lotta baggage that the flyover states couldn't tolerate (Bill's issues, the manufactured email controversy, etc.).

Again, if the Dems run a genuine leftist candidate they'll lose votes from moderate Republicans and those unhappy with Trump . The important thing is to win the election rather than promote a leftist agenda. Get in office first, then take on the behemoths.

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Re: Tulsi Gabbard

Post by Johnny Dangerous » Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:22 am

justsit wrote:
Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:10 am
ouldn't tolerate (Bill's issues, the manufactured email controversy, etc.).

Again, if the Dems run a genuine leftist candidate they'll lose votes from moderate Republicans and those unhappy with Trump . The important thing is to win the election rather than promote a leftist agenda. Get in office first, then take on the behemoths.

This has been the logic for much of my lifetime, and is partially responsible for us being where we are.

Packaging of the message certainly matters, but until the Democrats can run a candidate who genuinely seems interested in the working class again, I don't see them necessarily even winning the next election, bad as Trump is.
His welcoming
& rebelling are scattered,
gone to their end,
do not exist.
Knowing the dustless, sorrowless state,
he discerns rightly,
has gone, beyond becoming,
to the Further Shore.

-Lokavipatti Sutta

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